James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals

James Conner’s fantasy potential in 2024 is shrouded in uncertainty due to his recent injury history and advancing age. Conner, now 29, has missed at least four games in each of the past two seasons. Despite a fantasy resurgence last season, his 3.9 YPC per carry (YPC) and the Cardinals’ struggling offensive line raise concerns. The arrival of rookie Trey Benson could further reduce Conner’s volume, making him a risky pick for your fantasy team.

Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns

Nick Chubb is entering his age 29 season following multiple surgeries to repair a severe ACL injury from last year. Unlike typical ACL tears, Chubb’s injury was more complex, often requiring a longer recovery period. Historically, players with similar injuries take at least a year to return to their pre-injury form. Given his age and anticipated reduced workload, Chubb should be drafted with caution, and likely only after the top 32 running backs are off the board.

D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears

D’Andre Swift’s move to the Chicago Bears could spell trouble for his fantasy value. Swift thrived behind the Philadelphia Eagles’ elite offensive line last season, but the Bears’ line, despite improvements, has been one of the league’s worst in recent years. Currently, Swift is competing for touches with Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert, and with an ADP of RB20, his efficiency is expected to drop behind a less capable line. Unless Swift secures over 20 touches per game, his fantasy production may disappoint.

Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins

Raheem Mostert is a prime candidate for regression in 2024. Last season, Mostert scored a league-high 21 touchdowns, surpassing his career total prior to 2023. Such an extraordinary season is unlikely to be replicated. Additionally, with De’Von Achane gaining more touches late last season and rookie Jaylen Wright joining the team, Mostert’s volume is expected to decrease. At 32, Mostert’s age also raises concerns. The Dolphins’ ground game was unusually efficient last year, making all their running backs, including Mostert, risky picks this season.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs’ standout RB1 season in 2022 was an outlier compared to his career averages as a mid-tier RB2. Now with the Green Bay Packers, Jacobs faces a backfield likely to employ a committee approach, reducing his individual workload. If Jacobs fails to maintain high efficiency—he averaged just 3.5 YPC in 2024—he is poised to underperform relative to his 4th round ADP. Fantasy managers should be wary of expecting a repeat of his 2022 success.

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Selecting the right running backs is crucial for fantasy football success. These players, due to various concerns such as injury history, team changes, and competition for touches, pose significant risks. Approach with caution and consider these potential busts when planning your draft strategy. Check out which players are in for a bounce back campaign: Positive Regression Candidates in 2024 | Fantasy Football