2024 MVP Analysis – Quantified

We’re in the last leg of the 2024 NFL Football Season. One of the hottest topics on everyone’s mind is “Who are the front runners for The Most Valuable Player award?”

Opinions about the MVP race are coming from professional talking-heads, the depths of social media, sports bar across America and living room couches. That said, if we’re just going off opinions… I use my own. Instead, I want to leverage the actual performance statistics of the players themselves, as to weigh who has the best case for the MVP award. This is not a prediction of how the voters will vote. It’s an estimate of who’s actually providing his team with the most value.

It’s Not Just a QB Award… but…

For this exercise, I’m comparing the top 10 quarterbacks in terms of production, as of week 13 (this will not include Goff’s and Love’s Thursday night performances). Of course, we have at least 1 running back that should be in this conversation, and I will account for him in a later article. But for now… this analysis covers QBs.

The MVP Formula

I am extrapolating MVP value using a custom metric called Effective Offensive Production Score per Game (eOPS/G). This is featured in my GOAT Running Back Video Series. You can see the metric’s construction HERE or by clicking the image below:

This metric captures all forms of measurable performance, including total yard gained (from passing, rushing, and receiving), play volume, scoring, and ball security.

Next, we take the level of offense HELP that each MVP candidate has. This is based on another custom metric I developed before the season started.

Help Rating = [Pass_ratio * (OLQ + SPQ)] + (Rush_ratio * RushQ)

Finally, the win-loss records resulting from each player’s performance is used to give us the IMPACT rating, aka the MVP value.

MVP Results

A breakdown on the numbers gives us a few interesting takeaways.

• Lamar Jackson is the most productive Quarterback so far this season, with excellent passing yards, touchdowns, and rushing yardage.
• Jared Goff has been enjoying the most “HELP”:
  • The Detroit Lions have the best running back duo in the league in Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
  • They also have a virtual tie with Jalen Hurts’ Philadelphia Eagles for the best receiving corps in the league.
• Also of note, Jalen Hurts is 3^rd place in the HELP category:
  • The Eagles have the 2nd best overall run game with Saquon Barkley, the individual rusher leader (who’s also in the MVP conversation).
  • As I mentioned, their Skill Position Players are at the top of this list.
  • And they have the best rated offensive line.
• Finally, the quarterback at the top of the MVP conversation is Josh Allen.
  • He has the 3^rd best Offensive Production Score.
  • The 6th ranked HELP rating (which boosts his result)
  • His team is tied for the 2^nd best Win-Loss %.

These factors calculate together to give him the highest Impact Rating… when it comes to the offensive side of the ball. I mention that, because there’s something interesting about Joe Burrow.

• He has the 2^nd best Offensive Production Score, which should boost his rating.
• And he has the worst HELP rating (due to a poor offensive line and run game), which should also boost his Impact Rating.

However, he’s dead last among these 10 quarterbacks. This is due entirely to the Bengals’ atrocious Win-Loss %. He’s the only player on this list below .500. How did that happen? Well, despite his 2^nd best production result, his defense has given up the 2^nd most points in the league. As a result… Cincinnati loses… a lot.

So… if I adjust for Defensive Quality… or Defensive “weight” (in the context of the defense weighing down the quarterback’s MVP case) then we get some different results:

With Defensive Impact

Under these conditions, Lamar Jackson moves to the top spot and Josh Allen drops by one. This is because the Baltimore Ravens have the 2^nd worst defense on this list, reflected by the 2^nd highest “DefWt” value. By contrast Josh Allen’s defense is somewhere in the middle of the pack. To his credit… Joe Burrow moves up a couple of spots when accounting for defensive performance.

But There’s More

It’s also relevant to put Strength Of Schedule in the mix for the MVP discussion. It’s very relevant to a team’s record. Those facing tougher competition should get additional credit. So, after adjusting the results again for SOS, we get:

Basically, Jaylen Hurts moves down 2 places, while Baker Mayfield and Goff each rise a spot. Additionally, Lamar separates a bit more from Allen who’s still ranked 2^nd toward the MVP.

CONCLUSION

So, as it goes, Lamar Jackson has been the most productive QB so far this season. He’s been able to overcome a poor defense, while facing the hardest level of competition among the players in this analysis.

But the MVP race isn’t over yet. Baltimore has lost 3 of its last 6 games, and 2 of its last 3. This loss of momentum, while the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen have won 7-in-a-row, is something to keep an eye on. To close out the season, the Bills have arguably a lighter schedule than the Ravens so the MVP race is wide open.

On that point, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Patrick Mahomes in 3^rd place, who’s on his quest for the first Super Bowl 3-peat in the history of the NFL, and Sam Darnold at 4^th who’s also having a Comeback Player of the Year type season.

In the end… we don’t know how the season will conclude for each player, and we certainly can’t predict how the voters will make their picks. But… based on the data for quarterback production, win-loss record, offensive help, defensive impact and strength of schedule, we have the current picture of who truly is the Most Valuable Player this year… says me.