Breaking Down the Most Overvalued Player in the NFL
Last week I assessed who is the most underrated player going into the 2024 season. Now, I am breaking down the most… well… I’ll call it “overvalued” player in the NFL. We don’t have to look far to find the top candidates for this topic. There are 8 players in the NFL whose contracts afford them an average of $50 Million+ per year. As you might expect, all 8 of those players are Quarterbacks. Don’t get me wrong, quarterbacks are clearly the most valuable position in the game, but that doesn’t stop them from being overvalued and overpaid.
The Quarterback market has exploded in recent years, with teams driven to secure a top pass-thrower at seemingly all costs. They are paying like their guy is a top 5 Quarterback regardless of whether or not he is. You can check my math, but only 5 teams have a top 5 Quarterback and honestly, the top 5 in pay are not the top 5 overall. It’s become a race to the top… but the top is constantly increasing about $5 Million at a time for each contract renewal that comes up.
Who’s at the Top of the List
The 8 Quarterbacks with the richest contracts, as listed on Spotrac.com are:
From here, how can we assess what these teams are getting for their money? Should we look at:
- The accumulation of stats
- Accolades
- Win-Loss record
- Playoff berths
- Making deep runs in the postseason
It seems to me that teams are paying players to help them, in turn, make money. This comes by way of ticket sales, merchandise, and other revenue streams like sponsorships. Realistically those money-making streams are flowing because a team is winning. I think this is the best way to normalize the value added from each Quarterback. Big-market teams inherently make more revenue by virtue of the size of their fanbase so we can’t just go off of franchise value. In the end, these are all billion-dollar enterprises, so I will go with the assumption that winning drives a team’s popularity and thus increases its revenue. That’s what these Quarterbacks are paid for… win percentage, playoff berths, and how deep the team goes in the postseason.
To substantiate this assumption, take Russell Wilson’s 2022 contract with the Denver Broncos. He signed a 5-year deal that was worth basically a quarter of a billion dollars. He was attractive to them because he was a winner in Seattle:
- 104-53-1 win-loss record (66% win rate)
- 8 trips to the playoffs
- 9-7 in the postseason
- 2 Super Bowl appearances
- 1 of which got the team a Lombardi Trophy
However, after a couple of lackluster seasons and a poor win-loss record, the team came up with an exit strategy. Simply put, he wasn’t winning. So that’s my criteria.
Who Tops the List as the Most Overvalued
Unlike Russell Wilson, these top Quarterbacks in the $50 Million dollar club haven’t produced anything close to what he achieved. Let’s review their winning contributions as the starter:
Lamar Jackson has the best regular season win rate, while Jared Goff has the most post-season accomplishments (4 playoff berths plus credit for appearances in a Super Bowl & Conference Championship). Trevor Lawrence is looking bleak with a 40% win rate and 1 playoff berth. He did make it to the Divisional Round, whereas Herbert, also with a sub .500 record couldn’t get past the Wild Card game. I’m going to use this information to calculate the value of each Quarterback:
- Avg Annual Salary / (Win Rate * 100)
- Avg Annual Salary / [Playoff Berths + Div. Rd + (Conf. Champ. * 2) + (Super Bowl * 3)]
The Numbers Say… the Most Overvalued Player Is…
How do we interpret this?
This table tells us that the Baltimore Ravens are paying Lamar Jackson about $693k per win percentage, whereas Trevor Lawrence is being paid more than twice that much for each percent toward his winning totals. That is a pretty stark overpayment based on regular season results.
But how about per postseason accomplishments? Tua is being paid by the Miami Dolphins a full $52 Million for just having made it to the playoffs one time. Goff on the other hand, is paid effectively around $5 Million for his accomplishments, having made it to the postseason 4 times along with a trip to the Conference Championship and the Super Bowl. Teams are looking for those postseason accomplishments and the experience, so he’s a much better value based on this.
Now… for the final comparison, each Quarterback is numbered 1 to 8 based on their values in each column. These are then added together to tell us who is the most overvalued player in the NFL.
CONCLUSION
Based on this model, Justin Herbert takes the cake as the most overvalued player in the NFL. He has the second-worst win rate and has the least postseason accomplishments of the bunch. Right on his tail is Trevor Lawrence. That 2nd half comeback in the 2022 Wild Card game, where he threw 4 touchdown passes to make up for his 4 interceptions helped him eek into the 2nd spot as the most overvalued. That win was against Herbert, no less… helping push him to the forefront of the overvalued list. A special note… neither of those guys made the playoffs last season. I’m just saying.
As it is, teams seem to be paying for potential and the belief that their Quarterback will eventually deliver. There are a couple of players in this assessment that have achievements of note. Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Jared Goff all went to the Super Bowl. Jackson and Hurts have 70% or more for their win rates. However, as good as those things are, it’s still not a Ring. If any of these Quarterbacks don’t produce, will their team make an exit plan like Denver did with Russell Wilson? But the bigger question is… will the trend of overvalued and overpaid Quarterbacks continue? If so, the most overvalued player will basically change each year as new contract signings come up… and it will always be a Quarterback who is the most overvalued… says me.