“Hard… it’s been hard from the beginning.” – Cris Collinsworth on Justin Herbert’s NFL career (Chargers YouTube Channel).
And it’s been hard throughout. As for the beginning, that came in week 2 of the 2020 NFL season when Chargers quarterback Tyrod Taylor suffered a needle puncture to the lung just minutes before kickoff against the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs. Rookie Justin Herbert was unexpectedly thrust into the game for his first NFL start. Despite the eventual loss in overtime, the rook had an impressive debut.
In the aftermath, Herbert set rookie records for passing touchdowns and completions, amassed the most passing yards and completions of any quarterback in their first four seasons, and ranked second in touchdowns behind Dan Marino. Over the past two years, Herbert has thrown turnover-worthy passes at a rate of 1.8% (credit: Football Insights), the lowest in the NFL in that stretch.
Pure, masterful quarterbacking on every level. The stats back up the tape, and the tape backs up the stats. Justin Herbert can sling it at any yardage and angle with touch and precision while minimizing risk. However, there’s been another, much darker side to Herbert’s young career.
Justin Herbert was drafted to a team led by Head Coach Anthony Lynn and an offense designed by Offensive Coordinator Shane Steichen. Both were relieved after his rookie season and replaced by HC Brandon Staley and OC Joe Lombardi. Lombardi lasted just two years before being replaced by Kellen Moore who would last only a year as the Brandon Staley regime came to a bitter end. Two head coaches and three offensive coordinators in four years.
What makes Herbert so adaptable to different offensive schemes is his intelligence. A 4.0 GPA Biology graduate from the University of Oregon, Herbert is a floor-raiser for these offenses because he plays on time and on script. He avoids sacks, processes progressions quickly, and almost always makes the right read. The nitpick some have is there are times when you wish Herbert would be more creative and risk turnovers or sacks in search of a big play, such as the styles of Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. But it’s just not how he’s wired. In Jim Harbaugh’s words, “He’s like a human computer chip.”
Over the last four seasons, the Chargers finished bottom-five in the league in yards per carry in three of the four years. Defensively, L.A. finished in the bottom third of the league all four years in opponent points per game. In contrast, teams such as Buffalo, Kansas City, and Baltimore—other franchises with elite quarterbacks—consistently finish top ten in both categories year after year. It’s how you support a superstar quarterback: give him a run game to control the clock, and a defense that won’t allow every week to be a track meet.
Under former general manager—and current Raiders GM—Tom Telesco, the Chargers failed to support their star quarterback for nearly half a decade. It’s why Herbert’s most notable game of his career thus far is a blown 27-point lead in the 2023 wild card round against the Jacksonville Jaguars— a game that the defense allowed five straight scoring drives and not a single stop in the second half, paired with a running game that averaged 2.9 yards per carry.
Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh
Sep. 8: The Los Angeles Chargers vs. the Los Vegas Raiders. It kicked off the 2024 season for Los Angeles, Herbert’s fifth in the pros. What we know for sure is that it will be unlike any of the four previous seasons. L.A. underwent a complete offseason rebuild, including hiring new General Manager Joe Hortiz and new Head Coach Jim Harbaugh, a notorious winner. There is already a distinct change in roster construction.
With the loss of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Donald Parham Jr. and the addition of first-round pick Joe Alt, running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, and tight ends Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst, it’s clear that Hortiz and Harbaugh are building from the trenches—a strategy that aligns with the system new Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman wants to run. Roman orchestrated the aforementioned superb Ravens running attacks. He is now Justin Herbert’s fourth OC.
With this strategy comes a dearth of proven talent in the skill positions, as L.A. had to work its way out of cap hell this offseason. However, similar to Buffalo this year and Baltimore in the past, Hortiz and Harbaugh are betting that Herbert will elevate the new, unproven receiving corps to the level they need to be at. It’s a good bet when you check how Herbert has performed in games without Williams and Allen on the field: 13 Touchdowns, two interceptions, and a 68% completion rate (via: ESPN.com).
Last year, the Chargers were 28th in rushing success rate despite facing light boxes at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (via The Athletic Football Show). In a transition year of roster talent, establishing a good run game and leaning on your cyborg quarterback in the passing game is a good strategy.
Week 1 versus Las Vegas showed proof of concept. While it was rough around the edges, the running attack improved as the game went on, and Herbert did a good job avoiding sacks/turnovers to buoy a passing game that will take some weeks to build.
In the first half, Los Angeles had nine carries for 18 yards. In the second half, 17 carries for 152 yards. Imposing will and breaking teams down.
On the other side of the ball, Harbaugh poached former Michigan Defensive Coordinator Jesse Minter to join him in Los Angeles. Despite being unproven in the professional rank, Minter is a highly touted, forward-thinking coordinator who led juggernaut groups in Ann Arbor. Brett Kollmann made a great analysis video on the Charger’s YouTube channel which dives deep into the scheme you can expect from Minter.
As for the defensive roster, it has the feel of a stars-and-scrubs depth chart. Outside the edge rushers, there are real questions about every position group. However, year-to-year defense is more about coaching and playing hard in the right scheme than having blue-chip guys across the board. If the players buy into Minter and he puts them in a position to succeed, finishing the year around league average would be a huge improvement for this group.
With Justin Herbert at quarterback and Jim Harbaugh making the calls, a top-ten running game and league-average defense could be the recipe for a hard-nosed, gritty playoff contender—a culturally successful season for these Chargers. The coming months will reveal whether Los Angeles can finally give Herbert the support he needs, or if the wearying road will continue.
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