The opening weekend of the 2024 NFL season is in the books with week 2 rolling our way. That means it’s time to overanalyze and jump to conclusions… and I’m happy to oblige. The thing that jumped out at me the most across the first week was the rushing game (and by default the low output in the passing game, but I’ll cover that separately). Before we settle into week 2, let’s see what we can see about the rushing attack from week 1.
Notably, of the top 10 rushing teams (by yardage), 8 were in the winners’ column. By contrast, there were only 6 winners among the top 10 passing teams. Moreover, of the 16 winning teams from week one, 7 had more rushing yards than passing (5) or were within 20 yards of their total passing production (2). This represents a high correlation between rushing and winning.
The Rushers
Taking this another level down to the players, of those who were in the top 10 for rushing yards, only the 2 dual-threat Quarterbacks lost their respective games. The other 8 leading rushers showcased at least 90 yards on the ground and a touchdown apiece (Barkey had 2), along with each of them being victorious.
All data taken from Pro-Football_Reference.com
In some cases, it seems clear that the effective run game enabled the passing attack to thrive. It’s the kind of complimentary football that is, or soon will be, in demand as defensive schemes begin to win the arms race of this modern pass-centric era.
Rhamondre Stevenson churns out the yards
The Impact of a Strong Rushing Game
A number of the winning teams from last week had over 100 yards rushing. It forced defenses to adjust and allocate attention to rushing containment. The offenses listed below took advantage of this dynamic to achieve more prolific passing results. Simply put, this means the way forward is to diversify offensive schemes and leverage rushing plays to drive defensive behavior.
Currently, it’s defenses that are driving offensive behavior. They use constant nickel & dime coverage, with a 4-man rush to clog receiving routes. Pass patterns are forced to be overly intricate in order to create openings. Additionally, this leaves Quarterbacks facing lots of coverage pressures and sacks. Teams need to increase run volume, mix in two running back sets, and establish the run early. Once defenses bring more bodies into the box, the offense can take advantage of that adjustment to unlock the passing game… This is called complimentary football.
Individual Performances
Joe Mixon let’s everyone know that its a FIRST DOWN
To substantiate my position, it’s instructive to take a closer look at specific situations. The best example is Joe Mixon’s rushing performance in the Texans’ 29-27 victory over the Colts. On a 2-point margin of victory every inch he gained, the points he scored, and the 9 rushing first downs he delivered (with a 63.3% success rate) were crucial to coming out on top.
Based on this game in comparison to the 17 from last season, this one had the most play-action plays of them all. It turned out to be a feedback loop, that also enabled an uptick in yards-per-carry. This in turn bolstered C.J. Stroud’s performance as well, resulting in his 2nd best game for Completion % and a top 5 game for Passer Rating. All these factors have an impact on each other.
Then there’s Saquon Barkley. Last year he had only one game over 100 yards, and he averaged a mere 3.9 yards per attempt on 17.6 carries per game. This past week he got 24 carries as an absolute workhorse, gaining 109 yards (@ 4.5 yards/carry), while scoring 2 rushing touchdowns. Running behind the Eagles’ Offensive line creates quite an outlook for the season.
Saquon Barkley offered a whole new angle for the Philly offense
The same can be said for Jordan Mason’s unexpected but brilliant performance in San Franciso, and the leverage it gave the 49ers to excel despite a fair-to-middling passing day. Don’t forget about Kennith Walker III, Aaron Jones, and Rhamondre Stevenson who all had a significant impact on week one results. These are players and offensive schemes to keep an eye on.
Last Thought
The one guy who I said should be used this way… wasn’t. On just 13 carries and lackluster play-action fakes & misdirection plays, it’s not surprising the Baltimore Ravens got the “L.” Just sayin’
So in the spirit of jumping to conclusions… the run game will be an important part of team success this year. The phrase of the day, the week, and perhaps the season is “Complimentary Football”… says me.