Welcome to Blitz Sports Media’s Fantasy Football “Panic Meter”. Each week we will identify some of the disappointing performances from the prior week to identify if it is time to panic about a certain player. I have adjusted the panic meter post trade deadline to better evaluate our players ahead of the fantasy football playoffs. Below is the official Blitz Sports Media panic meter discussing the reasoning behind each panic meter level.
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Kyler Murray QB (ARI)
Panic Meter: 1
Kyler Murray’s recent fantasy production has taken a significant dip after a strong four-game stretch, during which he posted over 20 points three times. Over his last five games, he has topped 20 points just once, averaging only 14.3 points per game. During this stretch, he has thrown 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, while his rushing volume has decreased to just 4 carries per game. Furthermore, Murray has run for 19 yards or fewer in four of his past six games, which has hurt his overall fantasy value.
Despite these struggles, Murray’s schedule in the coming weeks presents a favorable opportunity for a rebound. With the Patriots, Panthers, and Rams up next in the fantasy playoffs, there’s reason to believe he could turn things around. The past three quarterbacks facing New England have all scored at least 25 fantasy points, and five of the last six quarterbacks have posted at least 21.3 points. Given this, there’s still hope for Murray to be a league-winning quarterback down the stretch, starting with a potentially strong performance in Week 15 at home against the Patriots.
AJ Brown WR (PHI)
Panic Meter: 1.5
Despite the Eagles’ ongoing win streak, AJ Brown has expressed frustration with his lack of involvement in the offense. In Week 14, Brown managed just four catches for 43 yards, and it marked his third game in his last four outings with under 12 fantasy points. Brown’s overall fantasy outlook is further complicated by the Eagles’ pass-heavy decline since their Week 10 bye. Jalen Hurts, who averaged 33.0 pass attempts in the first four games, has seen that number drop to just 21.4 attempts per game over the last nine weeks. Brown this season has not had more than six catches in a game resulting in a low floor every week.
Despite only averaging 6.6 targets per game this season, Brown is second among wide receivers in target share this season at 31.7%. Since joining the Eagles, Brown has been a volatile WR1 every season with 2024 being no different. This week they face the Steelers who lead the league in EPA per dropback since Week 9 with a good chance of Brown disappointing, but the schedule opens up the last two weeks. The Eagles face the Commanders and the Cowboys who are both allowing over 30 points per game to opposing wide receivers. With a lack of consistent volume, Brown has a low floor but with his 9th ranked EPA, he is in line for a big performance in the fantasy playoffs.
Najee Harris RB (PIT)
Panic Meter: 2.5
Outside of a strong stretch between Weeks 6-8, Najee Harris has struggled to produce consistent fantasy numbers, with only one other performance surpassing 13.6 points this season. Despite receiving a decent workload, Harris has been inefficient, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry, and his involvement in the passing game has been inconsistent. This has made his fantasy production heavily reliant on finding the end zone. Harris ranks 130th in expected points added (EPA) and is currently the RB20 on the season due to his workload on the ground.
Looking ahead, Harris faces a brutal schedule that significantly limits his upside. With matchups against the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs in the final stretch, he faces the toughest fantasy football playoff schedule for running backs. Given his current lack of efficiency and the challenging opponents on the horizon, Harris’s fantasy value appears to be on a downward trajectory. While he has been a serviceable starter this season, the combination of poor production and a tough schedule could lead to a disappointing fantasy playoff run for the veteran running back.
DK Metcalf WR (SEA)
Panic Meter: 2.5
DK Metcalf since Week 4 only has three outings over 10 points and has only found the end zone once during that stretch. We have seen JSN become the primary underneath threat on the Seahawks offense with Metcalf being the deep threat. Metcalf ranks 6th in the NFL in air yards share while ranking 2nd in deep targets, these have not translated into fantasy points due to Metcalf having a 22% target rate which ranks 48th among wide receivers. On top of a lower target rate, Metcalf is only seeing a 72% catchable target rate which ranks 40th in the NFL.
Much like AJ Brown, Metcalf is a highly efficient deep threat with a lack of volume resulting in inconsistent fantasy production. Unlike AJ Brown, he does not have Jalen Hurts and an elite offensive line resulting in less productivity. I would temper expectations this week against the Packers who rank 9th against wide receivers this season. After a matchup against the Packers, the schedule eases up with the best matchup for opposing receivers in the Vikings and a regressing Bears defense in the following week. Metcalf is a matchup-dependent starter for the rest of the season and is no longer a lineup lock.
D’Andre Swift RB (CHI)
Panic Meter: 3
D’Andre Swift has failed to score over 10 points in four of his last five games. The injury to Roschon Johnson led Swift back into a bigger role but ultimately led to no production. He finished with 38 rushing yards and 5 points against San Francisco this week marking his third straight game under 40 rushing yards. He ranks 30th among running backs in yards per touch while ranking 32nd in EPA. What is more concerning with his lack of rushing upside, is his decreasing role as a receiver in the Bears offense. Swift has averaged 1.8 catches per game over the last five games.
This week, it will not get better for Swift with a tough matchup ahead against the Minnesota Vikings. Swift finished with 9.5 points against the Vikings a few weeks ago and their defense has allowed the 4th fewest points per game to running backs. The schedule won’t get much easier next week against the Lions and then eases up in the fantasy football championship against the Seahawks. Overall, Swift’s lack of production as of late combined with a tough two-game stretch makes him someone you NEED to bench
Cut List | Panic Meter: 4
Kareem Hunt RB (KC)
Tyler Lockett WR (SEA)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine WR (TEN)
Jayden Reed WR (GB)
Cole Kmet TE (CHI)
Check out all of the Week 14 Reactions from around Fantasy Football
Answering everyone’s start and sit questions on X up until kickoff tonight!
[…] been one of the most frustrating players in fantasy football this season but has a chance for redemption down the stretch against great matchups. The stretch starts with the Patriots who have allowed 21 […]