Welcome to Blitz Sports Media’s Fantasy Football “Panic Meter”. Each week we will identify some of the disappointing performances from the prior week to identify if it is time to panic about a certain player. I have adjusted the panic meter post trade deadline to better evaluate our players ahead of the fantasy football playoffs. Below is the official Blitz Sports Media panic meter discussing the reasoning behind each panic meter level.
We appreciate all of your support during our first season! If you have a chance fill out this survey to help us improve our content ahead of next season!
Derrick Henry RB (BAL)
Panic Meter: 2
After a hot start to the season, Derrick Henry has slowed down in the second half of the season. Since Week 8, Henry has only one performance over 20 points and is averaging 12.35 points per game outside of that 20-point performance. Last week against one of the league’s worst run defenses he had a season-low 6.7 points while Justice Hill had a nice day with 17.8 points. Hill continues to operate as the primary third-down back in the offense while Henry dominates touches on early downs. In large part, Henry’s drop in points per game can be attributed to scoring no touchdowns in his last three games
This week the Ravens faced the Browns who held Henry to 14.7 points in Week 8 and the Steelers the next week who held Henry to 10.5 points in Week 11. Henry in the last few weeks was due for some regression and is working closer to his expected fantasy points per game. He is currently averaging 18.6 points per game, but his advanced metrics put him at a 14.1 point per game mark that would put him at the RB22. With Henry, you need to have him in your starting lineup, but I think it is best to temper expectations with him the rest of the season.
Isiah Pacheco RB (KC)
Panic Meter: 3
The Chiefs are going with a clear RB committee for the rest of the season despite Isiah Pacheco now being fully healthy. Pacheco and Kareem Hunt had a 50/50 split in snaps played while Samaje Perine took every third down snap for the Chiefs. Hunt was the better back Sunday with 13 carries for 45 yards while Pacheco had 13 carries for 32 yards and has been inefficient since returning from injury. In three games he has not topped 8.1 points in a game while seeing his yards per carry decrease in each of those games while the overall volume has increased.
Before the injury, Pacheco was in line for a great season with 32 points in the first two weeks. In those two weeks, he played over 80% of snaps and operated as the primary third-down running back. With a true three-headed committee forming in Kansas City, Isiah Pacheco is not going to return to what he was to start the season. The Chiefs have the Texans and Steelers next which makes it even harder for Pacheco to turn it up at the end of the season. Pacheco is still worth rostering, but I would recommend leaving him on your bench this week.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI)
Panic Meter: 3
Marvin Harrison Jr. has not lived up to the loft expectations that everyone expected of him in 2024. Harrison Jr. Since Week 5, Marv has only three performances above 10 fantasy points and in all three of those contests required a touchdown to reach that mark. In the last two weeks, he has had just 6 catches for 81 yards while failing to go over 60 yards in six straight games. His struggles this season can be largely attributed to his role within the offense. Marv has some of the best win rate numbers vs man coverage while ranking 45th in EPA and having the 6th highest air yards share %.
He has not capitalized on the field because he ranks 48th in target rate with the 84th-best target accuracy and the 105th-best target separation. These numbers showcase Drew Petzing’s inability to scheme open throws up for him while Kyler Murray is struggling to make good throws. He will continue to be a boom-or-bust fantasy option this season and I don’t dislike him as a flex option this week against Carolina. If you do start him though there is a strong chance, he will finish below 8 points or over 17 points in Week 16 making him one of the riskiest plays.
Amari Cooper WR (BUF)
Panic Meter: 3.5
After a promising performance in Week 14, where Amari Cooper recorded 14 targets, six receptions, and 95 yards, he was finished with 32 snaps and 0 targets in the shootout win against the Lions. There was optimism that Cooper would continue to see a prominent role despite the return of Keon Coleman but that did not happen. In his first game back, the Bills rotated their wide receivers heavily, with no one running routes on more than 64% of passing plays. Coleman caught a 64-yard pass on 27 snaps, and Khalil Shakir received the most targets.
The usage confuses me because it is not like Cooper is playing bad when he is out there. He ranks 19th in the NFL in route win rate vs man while ranking 31st among receivers in route win rate %. With Shakir and Dalton Kincaid emerging as the primary focal points in the offense, Cooper is now competing for scraps. His role seems to have dwindled, with the offense likely funneling through Shakir and Kincaid first, leaving Cooper to battle with Coleman and the running backs for limited opportunities. This drastic reduction in usage and target share leaves Cooper as more of a cut candidate than a starter in fantasy football.
Travis Kelce TE (KC)
Panic Meter: 1
Travis Kelce has lost a step with his yards per catch on pace for a career-low at 8.4 while he is close to his lowest average points per game in a fantasy season at 11.8. Despite seeing 39 targets in the last five weeks, he only has two performances over 10 points and has not found the end zone. Fellow tight-end Noah Gray has emerged as a consistent contributor in the Chiefs offense with 5 touchdown catches this season. We talk about the struggles, but he still ranks first among tight ends in red zone targets, air yards, and routes run. His fantasy points per game are expected to be at 16.7 points per game which is almost a 5-point difference from what it is right now.
This week, the Texans are also a tough matchup for tight ends allowing the 4th fewest points per game to the position, and another tough matchup against the Steelers next week. On the bright side, it looks like Patrick Mahomes and Hollywood Brown are trending toward playing this week which will help Kelce immensely. With the number one seed on the line for the Chiefs, I would continue to expect the team to feed Kelce despite the tough matchups ahead. Despite his struggles this season, Kelce is still a lineup lock every week due to his volume and positive touchdown regression.
Cut List | Panic Meter: 4
Russell Wilson QB (PIT)
Javonte Williams RB (DEN)
Gus Edwards RB (LAC)
Cade Otton TE (TB)
Tank Dell WR (HOU)
Check out all of the Week 15 Reactions from around Fantasy Football
Answering everyone’s start and sit questions on X up until kickoff tonight!