Jaguars’ Doug Pederson Era and Future HC Candidates

The Jacksonville Jaguars fired head coach Doug Pederson on Monday, launching their third head coaching search since 2021. Owner Shad Khan retained general manager Trent Baalke, who will help select the franchise’s sixth head coach since 2012.

The decision comes as the team aims to stabilize its football operations while developing quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The next head coach must address the team’s defensive struggles while improving a struggling offense.

Why Was Doug Pederson Was Let Go?

Shad Khan’s decision to fire Doug Pederson while retaining GM Trent Baalke has struck a chord with many Jaguars fans. The move comes after a disappointing season where the team set an abysmal NFL record with 10 one-score losses, despite Khan’s preseason declaration that this was “the best team assembled by the Jacksonville Jaguars ever.”

The primary reasons for Pederson’s dismissal center around offensive and defensive predictability more than anything. Others believe Trevor Lawrence’s stagnation at QB is the real reason behind the dismissal.

Jaguars’ Performance Under Pederson

Early Season Success– Team ranked in middle third of NFL scoring
– Balanced offensive production
– 37.3% third down conversion rate
Post Trevor Lawrence Injury– Decline in passing yards (204.5 per game)
– Pronounced predictable playcalling
– A drop in red zone efficiency
Formation Analysis– 11.3% option at snap (league lowest)
– 31st in pre-snap motion
– Too reliant on between-the-tackles rushing (77.3%)
Coverage Schemes– 60.9% (league high) two-high safety looks
– 8.3% Cover 3 usage (lowest in NFL)
– 56% man coverage ( third highest)
Defensive Shortcomings– 389.9 yards allowed per game (31st)
– 257.4 passing yards allowed per game (32nd)
– 9 forced turnovers (league-low)

Next Jaguars Coach Candidates

Lawrence’s development remains a critical concern for the franchise. While injuries played a role in the team’s offensive struggles, the lack of schematic creativity may have limited Lawrence’s growth. The next head coach will need to prioritize roster depth and development of the Jaguars’ young star at QB.

While the 4-13 record this season was disappointing, there is some promise with Jaguars’ roster of young talent and significant cap space for 2025 of around $42 million.

Johnson, 38, leads the NFL’s top-scoring offense and has drawn league-wide attention for his innovative schemes. He declined head coaching opportunities the past two seasons, choosing to remain with Detroit. His success in developing the Lions’ offense makes him a prime target, though competition for his services will be significant.

Weaver, 44, guided Miami’s defense to fourth in yards allowed (314.3) and tenth in points allowed (21.4) this season. His previous experience includes assistant head coach duties with Baltimore, where he interviewed for head coaching positions with Washington and Atlanta in 2023.

Coen, 39, transformed Tampa Bay’s offense, helping Baker Mayfield achieve career highs with 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns. Under his direction, the Buccaneers’ rushing attack improved from last to a top-five ranking, despite key injuries to receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.

Monken, 58, brings extensive NFL and college experience, including previous work as Jaguars’ wide receivers coach (2007-10). At Baltimore, he leads the NFL’s top offense in yards per game (424.9) and successfully integrated running back Derrick Henry while continuing Lamar Jackson’s development.

Moore, 36, previously interviewed with Jacksonville and was a finalist for Miami’s head coaching position in 2022. His work developing quarterback Dak Prescott in Dallas and Philadelphia’s late-season offensive improvements under his guidance make him a consideration for Lawrence’s development.

Brady, 35, maintains one of the league’s highest-scoring offenses despite losing receiver Stefon Diggs. His work with quarterback Josh Allen has drawn interest from multiple teams, including the Chargers, Falcons, and Jets. Brady’s offense demonstrated its potential against Jacksonville in Week 2, scoring 47 points.

What’s Next for Doug Pederson?

Pederson’s track record, including a Super Bowl victory with Philadelphia, makes him an attractive candidate for several positions around the NFL. Another head coaching position is a possibility with an offensive coordinator role making sense in certain scenarios considering Pederson’s strengths.

Taking on an offensive coordinator position with the Browns or the Bears could emphasize a distinct focus on play-calling and even build on previous experience developing young quarterbacks.

The inevitable yet still surprising firing of Antonio Pierce in Las Vegas raises some questions about the direction of the team ahead of next season. Could Pederson fit with the Raiders?

The Baalke Factor

Khan’s decision to retain Trent Baalke despite a 25-43 record since 2021 raises questions about organizational direction. The next head coach must navigate this dynamic while attempting to implement necessary changes to advance the franchise.

Many believe that GMs and head coaches should be a package deal. However, it becomes dicey when they are allowed to shift blame and undermine each other in favor of their own interests.

Trent Baalke remains as Jacksonville’s general manager after Doug Pederson’s firing on Black Monday, despite earlier rumors of his dismissal during the season.

Baalke first became GM in San Francisco in 2011, working with coach Jim Harbaugh after replacing Scot McCloughan. He later hired Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly before leaving the 49ers following a 2-14 season in 2016.

The Jaguars brought Baalke in as director of player personnel under GM Dave Caldwell in 2020. He moved to interim GM after Caldwell’s exit, then became permanent GM during Urban Meyer’s tenure. Baalke has now outlasted both Meyer and Pederson.

In 2022, Byron Leftwich withdrew from consideration as head coach because of Baalke, preferring to choose his own GM. Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated notes Pederson also hesitated about working with Baalke before taking the job.

Copy link