Under Pressure: How Defenses are Putting Opposing QB’s Under Duress to Start 2024

It’s no secret that the key to stopping a well-oiled machine on offense, especially the Quarterback, is to bring pressure. Ideally, you want this pressure to come without having to send too many rushers on a blitz, maximizing your combination of pass rush and coverage ability. Great defensive coordinators (DC) like Steve Spagnuolo have a knack for getting pressure without constantly blitzing, but also knowing when to dial up the perfect blitz look against an offense on a critical down.

I wanted to take a look at how the league’s most efficient pass rushing units are getting it done. First, let’s take a look at the Top 5 units in terms of both pass rush win rate (via ESPN) and Pressure % (NFL Pro).

Pass Rush Win Rate

1. Chicago Bears (63%)
2. Denver Broncos (60%)
3. Seattle Seahawks (56%)
4. Las Vegas Raiders (55%)
5. Houston Texans (52%)

Pressure %

1. Houston Texans (46.2%)
2. New York Jets (45.6%)
3. Denver Broncos (44.8%)
4. Cleveland Browns (39.6%)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (39.1%)

As you see, the Denver Broncos are the only team that appears both in the top 5 of pass rush win rate and pressure %. Now, why is that? Is it because teams getting the most pressure are blitzing heavier and getting home on things like simulated pressures? To figure this out, let’s see the teams top 5 in blitz % across the league.

Blitz %

1. Denver Broncos (44.8%)
2. Minnesota Vikings (38.6%)
3. Las Vegas Raiders (37.7%)
4. New York Giants (34.5%)
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (32.1%)

Once again, we see the Broncos at the top. They are blitzing the most of any team in the league behind DC Vance Joseph, and despite the lack of a true household name pass rusher, they are generating the league’s third-highest pressure rate.

The Raiders are blitzing the third most, but are just 25th in pressure rate, despite having Maxx Crosby. Brian Flores has the second-highest blitzing defense in Minnesota has the Vikings 7th in Pass EPA/play.

Then you have teams like Buffalo, who is bottom half in pressures, yet top 3 in Pass EPA. Perhaps you have an elite coverage unit and aren’t relying on the pass rush, like New Orleans (17th in pressure %, 6th in EPA/pass). Or perhaps you’re the Chiefs, blitzing the 7th most with the 26th-highest pressure rate, but having a good run defense (11th run EPA/play). These metrics show that there are different ways to create pressure. Ultimately resulting in different strategies for shutting down an offense.

The Effect on Scoring in 2024

Offensive outputs are down across the league, and it is yet to be seen if that’s because of 2-high safety looks, extreme pass rush, or simply bad offense. I suspect it’s a melting pot of all these factors, but it will be something that I will monitor going forward. Guys like Mike Macdonald, Vance Joseph, and Robert Saleh are leading the way in this defensive resurgence. Will this be the year we see a team truly carried to a title by their defense? Last year’s Chiefs defense was dominant, but they still had Mahomes, Kelce, and Rice. Perhaps this year, a league-average QB rides the wave of an elite defense, starting with the pass rush.

For an in-depth analysis of all of our game predictions for this week, Check out The Blitz Angle