After a tumultuous and disappointing end to the 2023 season, the Jaguars look to get back to their post-2022 trajectory. Is this the year Trevor Lawrence takes that next step?
The Jacksonville Jaguars a bit after midseason in 2023 seemed to be in a great spot. Entering a matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13, the Jags had a record of 8-3 following a win over the Houston Texans, who sat at 6-5. It seemed as if Jacksonville was on their way to a second consecutive AFC South crown. Then, the sky fell. The Jags finished off the year by losing 5 of their last 6 and losing the division, which the Texans won.
The Head Coaching looked poor at the backend of the season with Doug Pederson. Trevor Lawrence was under constant pressure, and inconsistent himself. On top of that, the Jags suffered injuries to multiple key contributors, such as Christian Kirk. Now, heading into the 2024 season, the Jags have reloaded, and retooled their Offensive Line.
In Free Agency, Jacksonville made multiple splashes. On the line, they added former Pro-Bowl Center Mitch Morse and Guard Ezra Cleveland. They added a new weapon to pair with Christian Kirk in Gabe Davis, who is prone to explosive games. Then, arguably their most talented new acquisition, Arik Armstead, signed after being dropped by the 49ers. Armstead joins a defensive front of Travon Walker and the newly-named Josh Hines-Allen.
In the draft, the Jags picked up yet another pass catching weapon for Lawrence in Brian Thomas Jr. Thomas played second fiddle to Malik Nabers last season at LSU but displayed incredible speed, and great route running. With the WR trio Jacksonville has and Travis Etienne, as well as a revamped O-Line, Lawrence has the tools around him to win. The problem is, in two years, the Jags have seemingly gone from having the brightest future trajectory in the AFC South to the dimmest. The Texans, Titans and Colts are all on the come up with young, centerpiece QBs as Lawrence, still just 24, is the senior QB in the division.
On defense, the Jags should be well-positioned, with the aforementioned D-Line and a Linebacking duo of Devin Lloyd and Foye Oluakon. In the backend, there are some question marks, with veteran Ronald Darby manning one Corner spot, alongside the reliable Tyson Campbell. The Safety spots are filled by Andre Cisco and newly-acquired Darnell Savage. In a tough division with multiple great young QBs and a plethora of great pass catchers, this group may make or break the Jags season.
The South simply seems too loaded for a Jags team that fell short last year. While the team did make good moves this offseason, the schedule is fairly tough and the Texans seem to be the favorite to win the South as the incumbent champ. Jacksonville is one of the hardest teams to predict, because their end of season in 2023 shows a possible continued decline, but the youth and 2022-early 2023 shows promise and may lend itself to a improvement in 24. However, I have Jacksonville finishing last in the South, with just four wins.
Schedule
@ Dolphins- L
Vs Browns- L
@ Bills- L
@ Texans- L
Vs Colts- W
@ Bears- W
Vs Patriots- L
Vs Packers- L
@ Eagles- L
Vs Vikings- W
@ Lions- L
Vs Texans- L
@ Titans- L
Vs Jets- L
@ Raiders- W
Vs Titans- L
@ Colts- L
Final Record: 4-13 (Last in AFC South)
Key Additions
WR Gabe Davis, WR Brian Thomas Jr, OG Ezra Cleveland, C Mitch Morse, S Darnell Savage, DT Arik Armstead
2023 Metrics
Offense
18th DVOA
27th PFF Grade
22nd EPA/Play
14th Points
17th Passing EPA
31st Rushing EPA
29th Pass Block Win Rate
27th Run Block Win Rate
Defense
10th DVOA
18th PFF Grade
16th EPA/Play
17th Points
15th Passing EPA
17th Rushing EPA
15th Pass Rush Win Rate
9th Run Stop Win Rate