The fantasy football championship gets started this week with two games on Christmas and one game on the 26th. The first two games are between Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers then the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans. The game on the 26th is between the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears. With lineup decisions more important than ever will give my advice on some borderline players in starting lineups. Let’s take a look at all of the players who made this special edition of the start and sit list.
Quarterbacks
Start
Geno Smith (SEA)
Geno Smith has struggled this season with only two more touchdown passes than interceptions, last week against the Vikings marked his first 20+ points performance since Week 9 due to his three touchdown passes. Smith is poised for another 20-point performance against a struggling Bears defense that has allowed 23.3 points per game to quarterbacks in their last three games. Smith can cash in on the good matchup with his volume, where he ranks 4th in the NFL in pass attempts. Smith is a low-end QB1 championship weekend.
Sit
C.J. Stroud (HOU)
C.J. Stroud has not been a reliable option all season, although he has thrown two touchdown passes in three of his last four games. The injury to Tank Dell and more offensive linemen is a major blow to the Texans’ passing attack. Don’t get fooled this week by the “good” matchup against the Ravens. Despite the Ravens ranking 27th against quarterbacks this season, their defense is playing at a high level. The Ravens have ranked 1st in pass defense EPA over the last five weeks. Stroud should be nowhere near starting lineups on championship week.
Running Backs
Start
Joe Mixon (HOU)
I’m backtracking on Joe Mixon here as I had him as a sit candidate last week against a tough matchup in the Chiefs that resulted in 8.1 points. This week I am trusting the veteran running back to have a better day against the 8th toughest matchup for running backs. Mixon will have more chances in the passing game with Tank Dell out and had 6 targets in three straight weeks before last week’s game. In games that Mixon gets 20+ touches, he has never failed to score under 17 points. With the injuries on both sides of the ball expect the Texans to lean heavily into Mixon making him a high-end RB2 against the Ravens.
Zach Charbonnet (SEA)
Both Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet are dealing with injuries ahead of a favorable matchup against the Bears. As it looks right now the early reports suggest Charbonnet will be healthy and Walker has a small chance of playing this week. We have seen Charbonnet cash in big time with Walker out this season as he is averaging 23.9 points per game. As mentioned above the Bears are a great matchup for running backs allowing the 4th most fantasy points at 25.4 points per game. Charbonnet should be a must-start this week if Walker is not playing.
Sit
Najee Harris (PIT)
Najee Harris has struggled mightily during fantasy’s crucial weeks, with his only notable performance being a short touchdown against the Browns in Week 14. Without that score, we’d be looking at three straight performances below 5 points. Harris has also been non-existent in the passing game, with just one reception over his last three contests. Jaylen Warren has also eaten into Harris’ snap share as he played a season-low 28% of snaps last week. On top of all of the struggles in the last three weeks, he has a matchup against the toughest matchup for running backs in the Chiefs. Harris should be nowhere near starting lineups this week.
Kansas City Chiefs RBs
The Chiefs have adopted a three-headed running back committee between Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco on early downs with Samaje Perine as the only third-down back. Hunt had the best day of the bunch last week going for 15.9 fantasy points while Pacheco continued to struggle since returning from injury. It won’t get much easier for the backs as the Steelers have been good against running backs this season ranking 10th in points allowed even after giving up over 200+ rushing yards last week. With limited volume to go around to Hunt and Pacheco, I am avoiding both of them in my starting lineup this week.
Wide Receivers
Start
Keenan Allen (CHI)
Keenan Allen has been a touchdown machine lately, scoring five touchdowns in his last five games resulting in four 20+ point outings. Last week against the Lions, Allen connected with Caleb Williams on 9 passes for 141 yards and a touchdown. During this stretch, he has ranked as the overall WR6 in PPR formats, just 3.2 fantasy points behind Ja’Marr Chase, and ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Heading into Week 17, he faces a Seahawks defense that has allowed the fourth-most touchdowns to wide receivers this season, making it a favorable matchup. With high volume expected in the passing game, Keenan Allen is a must-start.
DK Metcalf (SEA)
DK Metcalf had his best performance in five weeks with 3 catches for 57 yards and a touchdown on 7 targets resulting in 14.7 points. He has taken a back seat to JSN in the pass game but the favorable matchup last week against Minnesota allowed him to have a flex-worthy performance. The Seahawks have another great matchup against a struggling Bears defense since the firing of Matt Eberflus. In the last three weeks, the Bears have allowed six receivers to top 13+ fantasy points. Metcalf should be viewed as a strong flex start this week.
Sit
DeAndre Hopkins (KC)
DeAndre Hopkins had a quiet outing in the Chiefs’ 27-19 win over the Texans, finishing with just four catches for 37 yards. The return of Marquise Brown led to a reduced role for the veteran, as he ranked fourth on the team in both targets, snaps played, and receiving yards with Mahomes attempting over 40 passes. Hopkins has now failed to score more than 10 fantasy points in two consecutive weeks, a sharp contrast to his earlier stretch of multiple performances over 13 points. The Steelers provide a tough matchup for wide receivers and rank 13th in fantasy points allowed to the position. With a plethora of options in the passing game and Hopkins limited snap, I am not trusting him in my starting lineup this week.
Rome Odunze (CHI)
Rome Odunze remains a volume-dependent fantasy option heading into Thursday Night Football against the Seattle Seahawks. While he has seen solid target shares recently, he has caught more than four passes in only two of his last seven games. Odunze has operated as the big play threat in the Bears’ offense with his team-leading average depth of target but only has three touchdowns to show for it. The Seahawks are an enticing matchup allowing the 4th most touchdowns to receivers this season but it is hard to trust a boom or bust option like Odunze in my flex on championship weekend.
Tight Ends
Start
Travis Kelce (KC)
Travis Kelce has not been the same player this season as he is on pace for a career-low in average depth of target and receiving touchdowns. The struggles have resulted in Kelce ranking as the TE6 with 11.5 points per game. Kelce still owns a 24% target and air yards share which put his expected fantasy points at 16.7 games suggesting some positive regression. The Steelers rank 13th in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends this season, making them one of the more difficult matchups. Although Kelce is not the same player he once was, his healthy target share and positive regression suggest a better performance in the championship.
Pat Freiermuth (PIT)
Pat Freiermuth was nowhere to be found against Baltimore finishing with 4.6 fantasy points on three receptions. This snapped Muth’s three-game touchdown streak and 10+ point streak. His role has been steady in the Steelers offense with a 15% target share and 23% red zone target share. This week he bumps up into TE1 territory against the Chiefs who have struggled against Tight Ends all season. The Chiefs are allowing an average of 15.5 points per game which is 3rd worst in the NFL. Freiermuth is a solid start this week with a plus matchup.
Sit
Dalton Schultz (HOU)
With wide receiver Tank Dell out for the season, the Houston offense has seen a shift in its pecking order, leaving veteran tight end Dalton Schultz as the likely second option behind Nico Collins. However, when Nico Collins was absent this season, Schultz failed to top 10 fantasy points, with his only double-digit performances coming against the Jaguars and Chiefs—two of the worst teams at defending tight ends. Baltimore ranks 22nd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends but has only allowed four touchdowns this season. The former Cowboy has primarily relied on touchdowns to achieve top-10 finishes and I don’t see him having a big enough workload to trust him in my starting lineup.
Cole Kmet (CHI)
Cole Kmet has seen a significant increase in his snap share since Thomas Brown took over as the offensive coordinator. In the last four weeks, Kmet has not topped 8.9 points and three targets. Although Kmet did catch a touchdown last week, he has just three receptions for 23 yards over his last three games. Kmet ranks as the TE14 this season due to his massive performances. Seattle is a middle-of-the-pack matchup but with the lack of volume and consistency, I will be avoiding Kmet at all costs this week.
DEF
I’m not in love with any of these defenses in your starting lineup this week. Kansas City will likely be without Chris Jones. The Chiefs offense has been tough for opposing defenses so I’m downgrading Pittsburgh. I don’t trust Seattle or Chicago to keep it low-scoring. Houston is a no-brainer sit against the Ravens. That leaves the Ravens inconsistent defense against a struggling Texans offense. Baltimore is the best of the bunch but I recommend going with a streamer this week.
These are some elite streamers on the waiver wire this week
- Indianapolis Colts 37% owned
- Miami Dolphins 47% owned
- Las Vegas Raiders 8% owned
Kickers
Start
Jason Myers (SEA):
Myers has cooled off in the last two weeks with only 13 total points and a missed kick after a stretch of three 10+ point performances in four weeks. Myers will be in for a bounce-back week against a struggling Bears defense that is allowing the 4th most points per game to the position this season at 9.4. Expect Myers to be in for a nice 9+ point performance this week.
Sit
Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU):
As mentioned above, the Ravens have the best defensive matchup against the Texans this week. Fairbairn has been one of the best kickers in fantasy this season but has started to trend downward in the last two weeks. The injuries on the offensive line and to Tank Dell will make it harder for the Texans to move the ball against an improved Baltimore defense making me concerned for Fairbairn’s opportunities in Week 17.
Check out this video for all of your start and sit advice ahead of the Christmas matchups!
