With Week 16 of the NFL season in full swing, we had an unexpected high-scoring matchup between the Broncos and Chargers on Thursday Night. Whatever deficit or lead you might be in this week, starting the right players this weekend will decide your fantasy fate. The Start and Sit list contains borderline players for each roster to help you make the right decisions ahead of your matchup. This season we have hit on 68.3% of our start and sit picks. Below are my favorite start/sits for Week 16.
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Quarterbacks to Start
Sam Darnold MIN
Sam Darnold may have had a rough outing last week, scoring just 11.2 points in a win over the Bears after a dominant stretch. Before that, he had been on fire, averaging over 24 points in his previous four games, with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions. That stretch also saw him throw for over 1100 yards, showing his capability to deliver to lead the offense through the air when needed. Don’t let one bad week fool you, Darnold remains a solid fantasy starter against the Seahawks, a team that’s allowed over 17 points to eight quarterbacks this season. The rain in the forecast can play into the Vikings’ hands as they grade out as one of the best play-action teams in the NFL.
Baker Mayfield TB
Mayfield is fresh off a 288-yard, four-touchdown game against the Los Angeles Chargers, who sport one of the best scoring defenses in the NFL. Comparatively, the Cowboys allow 27.1 points, the third-most in the NFL. Mayfield ranks 8th in the NFL this year in passing EPA and has been one of the best options in fantasy all season. He has now scored 18-plus points in three of his last four games, and a matchup against the Cowboys makes him a nice option in the fantasy semifinals. Since Week 8, their defense has allowed 13 total touchdowns and the most fantasy points (20.8 PPG) to opposing quarterbacks.
Matthew Stafford LAR
Stafford, like Darnold, put up a stinker in last week’s win over the 49ers, but that doesn’t reflect how well he’s played lately. Stafford posted 19-plus points three times in his previous four games and threw for multiple scores in every contest. Since Week 8 when the Rams got healthy, Stafford ranks 5th in the NFL in passing touchdowns showcasing his value when the Rams are at full strength. Next up is a matchup against the Jets, who have allowed the fifth-most points to quarterbacks since Week 8 including 18.7 points to Mac Jones last week while having the second-highest completion rate over expected. Stafford should be in line for a good outing against a struggling Jets defense.
Quarterbacks to Sit
Tua Tagovailoa MIA
Tua ended his hot streak with a brutal 3.84 fantasy points with three interceptions and only one touchdown against a tough Texans defense. That brutal performance snapped a four-game streak of 23+ point performances where we were convinced the Dolphins offense was peaking at the right time. Tua and the Dolphins’ offense might be in for another rocky performance against a healthier 49ers defense. The 49ers have allowed the fewest passing yards and only 16 touchdown passes on the season. With only one quarterback breaking the 15-point mark since Week 6, Tua should be on your bench this week.
Patrick Mahomes KC
Patrick Mahomes has been struggling lately, scoring under 17 fantasy points in three straight games, and now he’s dealing with a high ankle sprain. While Mahomes has played better since the DeAndre Hopkins trade, an injured ankle against an elite pass rush makes it a risky matchup. The Texans are generating the third-highest pressure rate in the NFL while coming off of a dominant performance over the Dolphins last week. With a tough matchup and less mobility, Mahomes is in danger of having one of his worst outings of the season in Week 16.
C.J. Stroud HOU
C.J. Stroud had a glimmer of hope last week, throwing multiple touchdowns for the second time since Week 7, but he still struggled with just 11.64 fantasy points on 131 passing yards. That was his eighth straight game with fewer than 16 fantasy points, and he’s topped 13 points only twice in that stretch. Stroud has not finished as a QB1 since Week 4 and has reached 20 fantasy points just once all season. With the Chiefs defense surrendering the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last four weeks (just 12.4 per game), and Stroud’s inability to find consistency, he’s a risky play.
Running backs to Start
James Conner ARI
Conner is primed for another big week after a stellar performance last week, where he posted 138 yards and two touchdowns against the Patriots. Despite an inconsistent season, Conner is currently the RB10. He faces the Panthers’ defense, which has struggled all season, especially at home where they allow the most fantasy points to running backs. Conner should thrive in this matchup as the clear workhorse in a run-heavy offense, and his chances of finding the end zone are high given Carolina’s inability to stop the run. Expect him to surpass 100 yards again and be a strong RB1 option this week. He’s a must-start in all formats.
Chuba Hubbard CAR
Hubbard could be set for a bounce-back game after finishing with 8.9 points against a favorable matchup with the Cowboys. This week he looks to get back on track against the Cardinals’ defense that has allowed the third-highest rate of explosive runs and the eighth-most receiving yards to running backs. Given Hubbard’s consistent volume and solid ranking in red zone touches, this matchup provides a great opportunity for him to be in line for a monster week. The Cardinals allow 24.2 points per game to running backs this season and I am projecting an 18+ point performance in Week 16.
Jerome Ford CLE
Ford should benefit from a larger role with Nick Chubb out for the season. He scored 18.4 points last week against the Chiefs and has two performances over 15.5 points without Chubb this season. This week, he faces a Bengals defense that has been vulnerable to running backs, especially in the passing game, which plays to Ford’s strengths. The Bengals in their last three games have allowed over 190 receiving yards with three straight running backs going over 15 points. With his ability to break off explosive runs and his involvement in the receiving game, Ford should be a strong RB2 option.
Running backs to Sit
Najee Harris PIT
Harris was a sit last week and wound up finishing with 21 yards against a tough Eagles defense. This week he makes the sit list again with a tough matchup against the Ravens. Baltimore has one of the league’s best run defenses only allowing one rusher over 100 yards this season and is allowing the 7th fewest fantasy points per game. With the spread at -6.5 in the Ravens favor I expect we get a heavy dose of Jaylen Warren like we saw last week hurting Najee’s floor this week. He’s at best a flex option, and his potential for a big game seems low this week.
Isiah Pacheco KC
Pacheco has been a disappointment since returning from injury, failing to surpass 8.1 fantasy points in any of his last three games. The Chiefs have gone with a three-headed committee at running back with Pacheco’s role being non-existent on third down. He faces a Texans defense that ranks among the top in limiting fantasy points to running backs, particularly on the ground. With Pacheco splitting work with other backs and not getting enough opportunities in the passing game, his ceiling is capped. The combination of a tough matchup and limited role makes him a risky flex option at best. Avoid Pacheco in most leagues unless necessary.
Brian Robinson Jr. WAS
Robinson underperformed against the Saints with only 11 fantasy points and was inefficient averaging only 3.1 yards per carry. Robinson has struggled with efficiency with the amount of injuries he has had this season and it won’t get any easier this week against the Eagles. The Eagles defense has been dominant against the run, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs over the past eight weeks. Robinson Jr. doesn’t get much involvement in the passing game, making him even more reliant on rushing efficiency. He’s a risky start and should be considered more of a flex option.
Wide Receivers to Start
Brian Thomas Jr. JAX
Thomas Jr. has been on fire recently, coming off a career-best 32.5 fantasy points in a loss to the Jets, and has scored at least 16.6 points in each of his last three games. Thomas has developed strong chemistry with Jones, with at least 10 targets in every game since Trevor Lawrence’s injury. The Raiders’ defense, while tough on the perimeter, is still allowing 30.7 points per game to opposing receivers which is the 9th highest in the NFL. Thomas has been on fire as of late and should be a high-end WR2 this week.
Jakobi Meyers LV
Meyers should benefit from the return of Aidan O’Connell (knee) at quarterback after a down week with Desmond Ridder under center. Despite a tough Week 15, Meyers has been a strong option scoring at least 15 points in four of his last six games. Since the Davante Adams trade we have seen Meyers target share jump up to 25.4% which is plenty of volume for a consistent floor week to week. Jacksonville has been one of the worst defenses against wide receivers, ranking third in fantasy points allowed to the position. Meyers is due for a bounce-back week with a plus matchup and his QB back.
Keenan Allen CHI
Allen has been excellent recently, with three top-15 fantasy finishes in his last four games, including a monster 73 yards and two touchdowns against Detroit in Week 13. The Lions’ defense continues to struggle against wide receivers ranking bottom three in points allowed this season. Allen has seen his target share and first read share significantly increase against a single high making it a plus matchup against Detroit which runs it at a 51% clip. Allen is a must-start with his play trending in the right direction and a plus matchup against the Lions.
Wide Receivers to Sit
DeAndre Hopkins KC
Hopkins had a down game in Week 15 with 8.6 points. and faces a tough matchup in Week 16, especially with Patrick Mahomes playing through an injured ankle. Additionally, Hopkins will likely be shadowed by Derek Stingley Jr., who can make things difficult and just limited Tyreek Hill to 2 catches. While Hopkins had a solid run of games earlier in the last four weeks, his target share and efficiency have dropped off, and the Houston defense has held perimeter receivers to the fourth-fewest PPR points per target since Week 10. Hopkins should be viewed as a WR3/flex play this week.
DK Metcalf SEA
Metcalf has been in a slump, failing to top 10.6 PPR points in his last four games. Even with a favorable matchup against Minnesota, he has not been producing consistently, with fewer than six targets in three of those four games. Additionally, weather conditions in Seattle aren’t looking ideal, with rain expected. Minnesota’s secondary is getting a big boost with Stephon Gilmore’s return who will likely matchup with Metcalf. He has seen his target share dip to 12.4% against two high safety looks which Minnesota leads the league in. With a lack of volume expected Metcalf will continue his cold streak this week.
Deebo Samuel SF
Samuel has been a disappointment recently, scoring fewer than 6.1 PPR points in five straight games. Despite attempts by the 49ers to get him involved last week, he was unable to capitalize on the opportunity. He is currently on a touchdown drought dating back to Week 6 which has been needed due to his lack of efficiency. This week he is Facing a Miami defense that has allowed the third-fewest points to wide receivers this season, it’s hard to trust Samuel as a fantasy option. If you’re going to start a 49ers wide receiver, Jauan Jennings is the safer play over Samuel for the rest of 2024.
Tight Ends to Start
Sam LaPorta DET
After a slow start to the season, LaPorta has found his rhythm and has been a consistent contributor, scoring at least 10.4 PPR points in each of his last three games. Over the past two weeks, he’s accumulated 12 catches for 165 yards and 17 targets, which showcases his growing role in Detroit’s offense after the Kalif Raymond injury. The Bears have struggled against tight ends, allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the position since Week 8, making LaPorta a strong start for fantasy managers this week.
Brenton Strange JAX
With Evan Engram on injured reserve, Strange stepped up with his impressive 11-catch, 73-yard performance against the Jets. Strange has scored at least 9.2 PPR points in three of the last four games Engram has missed and is now positioned as a key piece of the Jaguars’ offense. Mac Jones in his career has over a 20% target rate to the right end position as well which could lead to more production for Strange than he had with Trevor Lawrence. The Raiders are one of the most generous defenses to tight ends, ranking 5th in fantasy points allowed. Given Las Vegas’ struggles against tight ends, Strange is a solid pick to continue his success as a fantasy starter.
Tucker Kraft GB
Despite a lackluster performance last week, Kraft has been solid for most of the season, scoring 10 or more fantasy points in three consecutive games before his 5.4-point outing. He remains a viable fantasy option, particularly against the Saints, who have struggled defensively against tight ends. The Saints’ defense has allowed the most yards after the catch and the most missed tackles this season, which plays to Kraft’s strengths, as he leads all tight ends in yards after catch (YAC) and missed tackles forced per reception. Kraft has the potential for a big game and should be considered a strong TE1 in Week 16.
Tight Ends to Sit
Jake Ferguson DAL
Ferguson started the season strong, but his production has significantly dropped off, especially in the past four games, where he’s averaged just 4.3 fantasy points. Despite being in a favorable matchup against Tampa Bay, Ferguson’s lack of involvement with Cooper Rush under center raises red flags. His highest score during the past month is just 6.2 points, and even in favorable matchups against the Bengals and Panthers, he hasn’t been able to capitalize. With limited upside, it’s best to avoid him this week in favor of other options.
Mark Andrews BAL
Andrews has been a touchdown-dependent tight end this season, helping him be the TE8 on the season. Analytically his numbers suggest he should be 18th in expected fantasy points per game in large part due to his lack of volume. The volume will be lower than normal this week against the Steelers who run single-high at the highest rate in the NFL. Andrews has seen his target share dip to 11.8% and has not scored a touchdown in 10 games vs the Steelers. All of the numbers are pointing in the other direction this week against Andrews and I won’t be trusting him this week.
Cade Otton TB
Otton has been on a cold streak, going five games without a touchdown and struggling with limited targets, including just four or fewer in three of the past four games. His production has been further dampened by the rise of Jalen McMillan in Tampa Bay’s offense. The Cowboys have been strong against tight ends, allowing only one to surpass 50 receiving yards in their last seven games. With Otton’s lack of volume and the difficult matchup, it’s advisable to look for a tight end with more upside this week. He’s simply not providing enough consistent production to trust in your lineup during the fantasy playoffs.
DEF to Start
Green Bay Packers
The Packers’ defense is starting to heat up as of late averaging 9.3 points per game in their last four games while adding 13 sacks in their last three games. Overall, this season, the Packers come in as the 5th ranked defense and have an elite matchup this week against the Saints. The Saints will likely be without their quarterback, top wide receivers, top running back, and top lineman in Week 16. The Packers have cashed in on favorable matchups in the past and I fully expect them to reach 10+ points this week.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals’ defense has shown it can capitalize on favorable matchups, scoring 19 fantasy points against the Titans in Week 15. Despite being ranked 25th in fantasy points per game and averaging only 4.4 points per game, the Bengals are in play against the Browns. Cleveland has had turnover problems all season, and with Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting at quarterback, the Bengals’ defense should have opportunities for turnovers. Cincinnati’s defense could be a top streamer this week, especially with the potential for multiple takeaways.
Atlanta Falcons
In Week 15, the Falcons defense was solid, registering two interceptions and a fumble recovery while holding the Raiders to just nine points. They’ve been excellent at generating pressure recently, recording at least four sacks in three consecutive games despite their struggles to start the season. Basically ,if you are playing the Giants, you find your way on this list. The Giants have scored less than 20 points in five straight weeks while averaging over 3 sacks per game allowed. Expect the Falcons to be in for a nice game on Sunday.
DEF to Sit
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers’ defense did not play badly against the Eagles and still managed seven points. Their defense faces a tough test in Week 16 against the Ravens, a team that has given up just one turnover and seven sacks since Week 8. The Ravens have been the toughest matchup for opposing defenses this season. Regardless of how good Pittsburgh has been this season, it’s hard for me to trust them against the Ravens in a do-or-die week.
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas’ defense has been performing well in recent weeks, ranking third in fantasy points since Week 8, but their Week 16 matchup against the Buccaneers presents a challenge. Tampa Bay has been explosive offensively, averaging 31 points and 455.5 yards per game over the past month. Despite Dallas’ strong performances, the Cowboys will struggle to slow down Baker Mayfield and a high-powered Buccaneers offense.
Kickers to Start
Jake Moody SF
Moody is coming off a solid performance with 17 combined fantasy points over his last two games, and he’s positioned well against the Dolphins in Week 16. Miami’s defense has been the most generous to kickers, allowing the highest fantasy points per game to the position over the last eight weeks. Given the matchup and his recent success, Moody has a solid start in Week 16.
Chad Ryland ARI
Ryland has benefitted from increased opportunities, averaging 3.5 field goal attempts per game over the last month, resulting in a solid fantasy production. He’s surpassed 12 fantasy points in two of his last three games, making him an attractive start for Week 16. The Panthers’ defense has struggled to limit field goals, allowing 2.5 or more attempts per game. Ryland should be in for one more good week before Matt Prater returns from IR.
Kickers to Sit
Jason Myers SEA
Myers has been on a hot streak, scoring nine or more fantasy points in his last three games, but Week 16 presents a tough matchup against the Vikings. Minnesota has been one of the stingiest defenses against kickers, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position this season. Only one kicker has scored more than seven fantasy points against the Vikings all year, making it hard to trust Myers this week in bad conditions.
Jake Elliott PHI
While Elliott had a solid game against the Steelers, scoring 10 fantasy points, he has been inconsistent in recent weeks, with three games of 6 or fewer points in his last four outings. In Week 16, he faces the Commanders, a team that has limited kickers, allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game since Week 8. Elliott’s recent inconsistency, combined with the tough matchup, makes him a riskier play.
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