As we have now seen six weeks of NFL action, the tiers are starting to take a clearer shape in terms of contenders and pretenders. There have been some surprises, as well as teams we expected to dominate playing amazing. Heading into Week 7 already, we take a look at the biggest concern for each NFL Division leader.
AFC East: Buffalo Bills – Pass Rush
Prior to yesterday, I would have said pass catchers. But with the addition of Amari Cooper, the Bills main flaw becomes their pass rush or lack thereof. They rank 20th in pass rush win rate and only have two players with more than a sack in Greg Rosseau and AJ Epenesa. As a whole, they have just 10 sacks in 6 games. To contend in the AFC, that is going to have to change. Buffalo will hope the eventual return of Von Miller helps boost this area.
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens – Secondary
The Ravens Defense as a whole ranks 23rd in EPA/play among their contemporaries. This is a sentence that seemed unfathomable heading into the season, following a historic season in 2023 defensively. Since losing Mike Macdonald, the Ravens pass defense has been putrid. They rank 27th in dropback EPA as opposed to 4th in rush defense EPA. With talent in the group like Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton, the secondary should improve, and they will have to stop guys like Mahomes, Stroud, and Allen.
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs – Pass Catchers
While some may point to the inconsistent and inexperienced OTs, their OL still ranks 2nd in Pass Block Win Rate. But with injuries to Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown, this receiving room now has major question marks. The team reunited with Juju Smith-Schuster, who made an impact in Week 6 against the Saints. Travis Kelce after a slow start has seemingly picked it up as well. With a trade not out of the realm of possibility they may need one if they plan on winning another championship. If not, it’s hard to envision Mahomes pulling a magic act and winning it all again with a makeshift WR group.
AFC South: Houston Texans – Offensive Line
The Texans could arguably be the most complete team in the AFC. Their defense has been elite, both in the run and pass game. Their offense has been playing very well, with great wideouts catching passes from a great QB, as well as having a great Running Back. However, the OL ranks just 26th in PBWR and CJ Stroud has been pressured on 37.5% of dropbacks, the 8th most in the league. Against a team with elite front seven play like Kansas City, the Texans could face problems, as CJ Stroud’s numbers drop heavily under pressure (-0.19 EPA/dropback).
NFC East: Washington Commanders – Defense
The Commanders have been willed to win multiple times by Rookie phenom Jayden Daniels but have a massive defensive problem. They are bottom 8 in rush EPA/play on defense and pass EPA/play both. Their total defense ranks 29th in EPA/play and 28th in DVOA. Their coverage has been very bad with a pass rush win rate of 8th being the lone saving grace.
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings – Run Game
With an elite defense, the Vikings have complemented this unit with a top offense. And while they are 10th in passing EPA, their run unit ranks just 26th. Aaron Jones has been a great addition but has only played 3 games, and behind him there is little depth. With a regression likely coming for Sam Darnold to some extent, the Vikings need to shore up their run game.
NFC West: San Francisco 49ers – Health
The 49ers have failed to get in a rhythm, but a lot of this has been continuity. They rank in the top half or better in pass and rush EPA on both sides of the football, and Brock Purdy has played well. However, they are yet to see Christian McCaffrey on the field, and his replacement, Jordan Mason, just went down with an injury in Week 6. George Kittle and Deebo Samuel have missed time, and on the defensive side, Talanoa Hufanga is once again on IR. If the Niners can get healthy, it feels like they will once again be in the championship mix.
NFC South: Atlanta Falcons – Pass Rush
The Falcons, despite adding Matthew Judon, have accounted for the least pressure in the NFL, at just 23%. They blitz the 7th most of any team in the league as well, so this is a major concern. While the Lions are sure to be looking into Hassan Reddick with the news of Aidan Hutchinson, the Falcons should be making calls as well. If they draw an OL like Detroit or SF in January with the pass rush in its’ current state, they may be in a world of trouble.