Photo taken from: www.si.com

Texans ‘Excited To See’ QB C.J. Stroud and WR Nico Collins Develop

David Harrison. Sep 20, 2023. 11:24 AM EDT

The Houston Texans made quite a splash last season, winning the AFC South for the first time in 4 years and putting up the first positive point differential in 5.

All data sourced from Pro-Football-Reference.com

Rookie Quarterback (QB) C.J. Stroud made his presence known by earning an elite assortment of accomplishments:

• • Offensive Rookie of the Year

• • 1^st in Yards Per Game

• • 1^st (meaning lowest) Interception %

• • Top 10 in both Passing Touchdowns & 1^st Downs

• • 8^th for Total Yards Passing (4,108)

• • 6^th in Passer Rating (100.8)

• • 3^rd in Adjusted Net Yards / Attempt (a quintessential QB metric)

• • t3^rd in Game Winning Drives (with the likes of Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, and Jared Goff)

This is a performance to cherish. It’s what every team longs for from their rookie Quarterback who was a 2^nd overall pick. To support Stroud in these achievements, he threw to a superbly talented “Wide Receiver Room.” Emerging as Wide Receiver One (WR1) was 3^rd year Texan Nico Collins. With Stroud at the helm, he rose from 481 yards on 66 targets the year before to 1,297 yards on 109 targets. This young QB-WR combo provides an excellent foundation for the team to build on. But it doesn’t stop there. Rookie Receiver Tank Dell had an exceptional showing. He had only 8 starts but managed 47 catches for 709 yards and 7 touchdowns (just 1 fewer than Collins). He settled in soundly in the WR2 spot. Finally, rounding out the WR corps was Noah Brown, who was picked up through free agency last season. He had the 3^rd most targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns proving his worth among the remaining receivers in rotation. This has the makings of a bright future for the Houston Texans… they have young talent, had a memorable season, and delivered breakthrough stats and achievements.

Things get complicated for the Houston Texans

In the offseason, Houston signed Pro Bowl receiver Stefon Diggs. He’s coming off 6 consecutive 1000-yard seasons, joining the Texans in what turned out to be a 1-year deal. The intention seems to be to add a veteran presence to the Receiver Room, bolstering all those young up-and-coming players. Reports from training camp support this notion with statements that Diggs is driving “competitiveness” among the players (Koch, Joshua. 2024, July 28. KPLC. www.Kplctv.com.)

At first blush, it all sounds positive. However, this should be looked at with a great deal of caution. Stefon has developed quite a reputation for being a diva. His outspoken and in-your-face attitude apparently caused friction between him and Buffalo Bills Quarterback Josh Allen, allegedly because he wasn’t targeted when he thought he should have been.

Image taken from a post by @ABsneursurgeon on X.

https://x.com/ABsneurosurgeon/status/1617293849419997185

The main area of concern

Last season Diggs had 160 targets, tied for 6^th in the NFL. With Nico Collins currently established as the Texans’ WR1, does he now take a step back? Does he give up targets, having his growth suspended for a season? And if he does… what then for Tank Dell and Noah Brown? To satisfy Stefon Diggs’ appetite for the ball, the other receivers would also have to give up a portion of their target share. So, either 160 targets are taken away from the others… or… Diggs has to accept a diminished role.

Houston was 12th for passing attempts last season with 592, whereas the Washington Commanders led the league with 636. Additionally, the Texans had 100 fewer total plays (1083) than the league-leading Cleveland Browns (1187). So, there’s certainly room to add total plays, while increasing the number of passing attempts in the offensive scheme.

However, the math still falls short. Collins enjoyed 109 targets for 30^th best in the league last season. I can only see Houston wanting to increase those targets, especially considering how spectacular his performance numbers were. Among WR with at least 80 targets in 2023 Collins was:

• • 1^st in Passer Rating when thrown to (129.6)

• • 4^th in Catch rate (73.4%)

• • 2^nd in Drop rate (1.8%)

• • 1^st in Broken Tackles / 2^nd in Broken Tackles per reception

• • 2^nd in yards per target

• • 7^th in yards per game

It would seem unconscionable to interfere with his progress. Keeping both him and Stefon fed would wipe out the rest of the receiver corps. That is equally undesirable considering they are all young and talented, ready to grow with the C.J. Stroud at the wheel. So again, either the others are pushed down the WR hierarchy or the ‘Diggs diva’ will be on full display. That veteran presence, which may have been intended to support the younger athletes’ development, could very well become a distraction for the entire team. It’ll test Stroud’s ability to lead the team as the unifying force on the field and in the locker room. Does he have the personality to handle Stefon should he begin to “express” himself?

Final Thoughts

Of course, the contract with Diggs is a one-year deal, so they have an exit plan if things get complicated. But the upside to signing him in the first place just doesn’t reveal itself. They have the talent pool to build on and the makings of a great leader in Stroud. That seems like the direction they would want to stick with. So, bringing on Stefon Diggs just doesn’t add up. At best his place in the offense slows down the development of the existing talent pool, while at worst he may become a toxic presence that threatens the entire season. All things considered… this signing looks like a bad move… says me.