14 weeks into the regular season, most of the player awards are virtually decided. There is still a chance for some long shots to make a run though. A lot can happen in the 4 weeks that remain.
In 2017, after 13 games, Carson Wentz had completed over 60% of his passes for 3,926 yards, 33 TDs, and just 7 INTs. He had led the Philadelphia Eagles to a record of 11-2 and seemingly locked up the NFL MVP award.
In that 13th game, Wentz suffered a leg injury that would ultimately end his season. Even though the Eagles went on to win Super Bowl LII, Wentz finished with only 4% of the MVP votes despite finishing the season with more TDs than the eventual winner, Tom Brady.
Below are the run-away favorites for player awards along with some long-shot scenarios that may be worth a flier bet.
Most Valuable Player
Josh Allen (-417) – Nobody wishes for an injury on any player, but it’s possible. Josh Allen is as durable of a QB as there is in the league, but he’s also the most reckless. 2024 has been his best year yet, but he’s been susceptible to turnovers throughout his career – a few bad games could change an MVP race that has been very tight throughout the season.
Saquon Barkley (+462) – Barkley currently leads the league in rushing and needs just 120 yards per game to break the 40 year old all-time single season record of 2,105.
Lamar Jackson (+1100) – Last year’s MVP is currently on pace to finish with better numbers in every major statistical category this year, including rushing. He can put up yards and TDs in bunches and could be a steal of a bet at +1100.
Offensive Player of the Year
Saquon Barkley (-588) – OPOY is the most realistic award for Saquon, who will almost surely rush for at least 2,000 yards. Even in a record-breaking year, it’s hard for running backs to earn serious MVP consideration
Derrick Henry (+725) – Henry lost some of his early season momentum to Saquon Barkley but is still on pace for over 1,800 yards. Henry, the all-time leader in 200-yard games, could use one to get himself back in the OPOY race.
Ja’Marr Chase (+750) – On pace for the triple crown, Chase has clearly been the best wide receiver of 2024. His QB, Joe Burrow, would be a no-brainer at MVP if the Bengals were within playoff contention. Voters could award Chase OPOY as a consolation prize for the Bengals’ dynamic offense that has gone to waste.
Defensive Player of the Year
TJ Watt (-225) – It’s a down year statistically for Watt, who is the front-runner by default due to well-timed plays on one of the league’s top defenses. He also has a record of injuries, having played a full season only 3 times in his NFL career
Myles Garrett (+1500) – Despite the abysmal season for the Browns, I’m surprised at these odds. Garrett is on pace to match his numbers from last season when he won DPOY. With the season-ending injury to Aidan Hutchinson, if Watt were to go down, it feels like Garrett would win by default.
Xavier McKinney (+1733) – In his first season in Green Bay, Xavier McKinney leads the league in interceptions with 7. With 2 of his last 4 games being in primetime, it’s a great opportunity for him to make some big plays in front of voters and the entire world.
If you followed my week 14 recommended bets, you will be sure to check more of them out going forward. We hit 4/5 on game lines, 4/5 on player props, and a +250 anytime touchdown. Blitz Sports Media will be posting recommended bets every Sunday morning for the rest of the NFL season.
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