We are down to the final four teams that are still competing for a chance to win a national championship. Under the four-team format used for the past decade, only Penn State and Texas would have found themselves at this stage, but that is the beauty of the new 12-team format: losses to Northern Illinois and Michigan do not have to end your season. Instead, Ohio State and Notre Dame are still in the dance, and both are favored to win their games.
Another interesting trend is that all four remaining teams played at home and won in the first round, and then knocked off the conference champion, who had a bye, in the quarterfinals. While it seems like the extra rest seemed to provide more rust for the teams on bye, it will be interesting to see if now not having that bye could result in more fatigue for the semi-finalists, especially Penn State and Texas, who are playing their 16th game of the season due to playing in their conference championships. While 16 games is more than any team has played in the modern era of college football, with a potential 17th game on the horizon, we fans are never going to complain about more football. It is going to be an outstanding five days of playoff football starting with these college games, so let’s get into breaking down these college football playoff semi-finals.
College Football Playoff Semi-Final at the Orange Bowl: Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Game Info: Thursday 1/9, 7:30 ET on ESPN, Miami, FL
Betting Info: Notre Dame -5.5, Total 44.5
Despite Riley Leonard only throwing for 90 yards in the Notre Dame win over Georgia, the Fighting Irish won the game handily due to big plays by their defense and special teams. After looking like it would be a 6-3 game heading into halftime, Junior Tuihalamaka forced a fumble to set up Riley Leonard’s touchdown pass to Beau Collins. Then Jayden Harris returned the opening kickoff of the 2nd half for a touchdown, and just like that, it was 20-3 Notre Dame. Notre Dame’s defense forced three turnovers on downs in the 2nd half, allowing the Fighting Irish to roll to the win.
However, Penn State will not be playing with their backup Quarterback like Georgia was. Instead, they will have to try to stop Drew Allar who has thrown for 3192 yards this season including 191 yards and three touchdowns in the Nittany Lions win over Boise State. His favorite target, Tyler Warren, caught two of those touchdown passes and has 1158 receiving yards on the year. Penn State also has a stout defense like Notre Dame, as they forced four turnovers against Boise State including three interceptions.
The big key for both teams in this game will be who can run the ball more effectively. Both teams have two-headed monsters in the backfield, with Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price leading the Irish on top of Quarterback Riley Leonard’s ability to rush the ball. Penn State is led by Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who have both rushed for over 1000 yards this season. The team that can move the ball on the ground against the other team’s defense and make sure not to turn the ball over, which both of those things will be no easy task, will win this game. With a win in the college football playoff semi-finals, Notre Dame will return to the National Championship for the first time since 2012 when they lost to Alabama. Penn State will play in the National Championship for the first time since 1986 and would be their first appearance in a BCS/CFP Championship Game with a win.
My Prediction: Notre Dame 21-20
College Football Playoff Semi-Final at the Cotton Bowl: Texas Longhorns vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Game Info: Friday 1/10, 7:30 ET on ESPN, Arlington, TX
Betting Info: Ohio State -5.5, Total 53.5
The 12-team playoff gave Ohio State a second chance at an Oregon team that beat them by 1 in Eugene earlier in the year, and the Buckeyes made the most of it. Jeremiah Smith scored a 45-yard receiving touchdown on the first drive of the game. He then added another 43-yard receiving touchdown in the 2nd quarter and finished the game with 187 receiving yards to go with his two scores. The Buckeye offense was also clicking on the ground, led by TreVeyon Henderson rushing for 94 yards and two touchdowns, one of them being from 66 yards out. The Buckeyes led 34-0 and did not allow Oregon to score until the final play of the first half. While every other season the loss to Michigan would have ended Ohio State’s season, but this year it looks like it has woken them up to be the best team in the country.
But Texas will not be any pushover, especially with the Longhorns getting a pseudo-home game playing in their home state. Former Ohio State commit Quinn Ewers leads Texas, who threw for 322 yards and three touchdowns in the Longhorns 38-31 2OT win in the Peach Bowl. Texas also has a standout receiver in Matthew Golden, who had 149 yards and a touchdown in the win. Texas had multiple chances to win the game in regulation but had some special teams struggles that kept Arizona State in the game when kicker Bert Auburn missed two field goal attempts late in the 4th quarter. However, in their special teams return game, the Longhorns have a big-play return man in Silas Bolden who had a 75-yard punt return to the house.
Despite both teams’ higher-scoring affairs in the Quarterfinals, both have talented defenses. The Buckeyes only allow 12 points per game, which leads the nation. They have two talented Defensive Ends in JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, who both have 8+ sacks on the year. Texas only allows 14 points per game which is the 4th best in the nation. The Longhorns Defensive Back Jahdae Barron won the Jim Thorpe Award for best DB in the nation and had five interceptions on the year, fourth most of anyone in FBS. This game will come down to which defense can stop these big-play offenses, and which offense can control the game. There are a lot of people who have been counting out Ohio State Quarterback Will Howard, he is not capable of making the big plays to win big games. Well, I think he proves that narrative wrong, and connects with Smith and Emeka Embuka to keep drives going and lead the Buckeyes to the win. With a win in the college football playoff semi-finals, Ohio State will return to the National Championship for the first time since 2014 when they won the first College Football Playoff over Oregon. Texas would return to the National Championship for the first time since 2009 when they lost to Alabama with a win.
My Prediction: Ohio State 28-21