After looking at the MVP race a couple of weeks ago, I figured it’s time to check in on the Offensive Rookie of the Year standings. As I said before, when it comes down to the actual voting the Associated Press voters will decide in their own way. My intention is to add something a little different to the conversation, using a data-driven approach. It’s just one man’s take.
So… Who’s in the Mix for Offensive Rookie of the Year?
The standout candidates for the Offensive Rookie of the Year are a couple Quarterbacks and a Tight End. I am basing this on the odds-on favorites as seen on the betting sites. Maybe you disagree, but this points to a point I touch on at the end of the article. For the moment, I listed the top three candidates here in order of Win-Loss Percentage. Unfortunately, the disparity for Brock Bowers jumps right out at you. More on this later.
The Analysis
I’m using the same formula as I did for the MVP race. However, I’ve counted each Quarterback’s Passing yardage at ½ the value. The rationale is that a Quarterback is accountable for 1 portion of the passing production… that being the pass itself. The Receiver handles 2 portions… 1) route running, along with the effort to get open, and 2) the act of catching the ball. This normalizes the level of production between the different positions. Let’s see how it shakes out:
Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix feature the same Win-Loss ratio as of Week 14. However, you can see that Daniels boasts greater production as reflected by his effective Offensive Production Score per Game (eOPS/G). Then, factoring in each player’s Help Rating, along with the Quality of Defense, Win-Loss %, and Strength of Schedule, Jayden pulls ahead as the best candidate for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
BUT…
I can’t help but look back at Brock Bowers Win-Loss %. As a rookie, can we really hold the team’s success at winning against him? Afterall, we aren’t awarding Most Valuable Rookie. This is about who’s playing the best out of the freshman class. With this in mind, I removed the team record from the calculation, as well as Quality of the Defense (after all, it’s an offensive award). This version of the formula still accounts for Offensive Help and Strength of Schedule. After recalculating, we see that the modification makes things look a little… or A LOT different:
Without saddling Bowers with his team’s 2-12 record, he surges to the top of this list. This means that his more modest production (eOPS/G) compared to the two Quarterbacks, is modified by the Help Rating to boost his result significantly. The lower the Help Rating, the higher the final Rookie of the Year score… and Brock’s Help is significantly lower than Daniels and Bo Nix’s. This means, being a stand-out offensive weapon on that poor Las Vegas offense carries (or at least should carry) a great deal of weight for this conversation.
CONCLUSION:
It all boils down to how you look at this award and decide what matters. If records are important, then any player on a weak team just doesn’t stand a chance at Rookie of the Year. If his performance relative to the quality of his offensive is important, we get a different picture.
Now… taking a step back… I think this highlights something that plagues everyone single one of these conversations… from Offensive Rookie of the Year to MVP, from being the “Best” at a thing to “Greatest of All-Time” conversations. What are the criteria? What matters? How do we decide and how do we weigh the factors we decided on? I think about these things a lot and they absolutely affect how these questions get answered, such as who is Offensive Rookie of the Year?
We really can’t agree on the answer until we agree on the criteria… says me…
By the way… I vote for Brock Bowers!!!