Week 4 of the NFL season is almost wrapped up with two Monday night football games tonight that should be fun to watch. The Chiefs and the Vikings both moved to 4-0 while we also saw big wins from the Bucs, Ravens, and Falcons this week. After week 4 let’s take a look at some of the biggest overreactions around the NFL. Below is the official Blitz Sports Media overreaction meter scale.
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Overreactions
The Commanders are going to win the NFC East
The Commanders made a statement the last two weeks scoring 80 points while beating two playoff-hopeful teams in the Bengals and the Cardinals. The explosiveness on offense comes from their 3rd ranked rushing attack and the early-on efficiency from rookie QB Jayden Daniels. Daniels recently just broke the completion percentage record in a calendar month and looks the part through four games.
They now sit at 3-1 atop the NFC East in a division race that seems to be wide open. The Cowboys struggle against the run, the Eagles secondary is hit or miss, and the Giants are not talented. The biggest thing holding the Commanders back right now is their defense which ranks out in the bottom of the NFL in multiple categories. With a defensive-minded HC in Dan Quinn, I expect this unit to get better as the season goes on. I am starting to buy into this team winning the division but need to see more out of the defense to be confident in them down the stretch.
Overreaction Meter: 2
Sam Darnold is the front-runner for MVP
Darnold and the Vikings are the NFL’s biggest surprise through the first four weeks of the season. They jumped out to an early 28-0 lead over the Packers behind their opportunistic defense and their offensive efficiency. Officially 4-0, the Vikings truly have had performances from different position groups stand out but the most notable is the QB position.
Sam Darnold on the season now has 932 passing yards with 11 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. The Vikings have taken down the 49ers, Texans, and Packers in the last three weeks behind Darnold’s arm. With Josh Allen losing last night and Darnold continuing his hot streak, he has truly inserted himself as the front-runner for MVP.
Overreaction Meter: 1
The Chiefs injury concerns cloud their 3-peat outlook
The Chiefs sit at 4-0 in their quest for a 3-peat after a 17-10 win over their division rival the Los Angeles Chargers. The biggest headline from the game was star WR Rashee Rice going down with a knee injury that is looking like a torn ACL. The Chiefs will now be without Rice, WR Marquise Brown, and RB Isiah Pacheco for the majority of the season. On top of the injuries, their tackles continue to kill drives with their holding penalties and inability to block a good EDGE rusher.
These concerns are real, for any other team I would probably write them off. The Chiefs on the other hand still have Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Andy Reid. They will get whatever they can out of this offense on their quest for a 3-peat and don’t be surprised if they add to the WR room before the trade deadline. Their defense might not be as dominant as last year, but that unit is still among the best in the league. NEVER count out the Chiefs
Overreaction Meter: 1
The Jets offense will hold them back from their Super Bowl aspirations
In a defensive showcase, the Denver Broncos took down the New York Jets 10-9 on the road. Bo Nix only needed 60 passing yards in the win as the defensive scheme by Vance Joseph has been elite through 4 weeks. Once the Broncos get more offensive talent around Nix, they could make some noise with the way they have been playing defense. On the Jets side of things, their offense took a major step backwards after their Thursday night win against the Patriots.
The rushing attack for the Jets was nonexistent as starter Breece Hall had 10 carries for 4 yards. This forced the Jets to throw more than they liked in poor passing conditions. The Broncos masterful blitzing schemes gave fits to the offensive line as they allowed 5 sacks. Rodgers could not get going with the constant pressure and lack of a downfield passing game. Things are not clicking yet for the Jets offense. They now have their toughest two-week stretch of the season with the Vikings and Bills.
Overreaction Meter: 2
The NFC South is a tough division
The NFC South is looking better than expected after the first four weeks of the regular season. The Bucs are now 3-1 and are coming off a dominant win over the Eagles. Baker Mayfield shredded an inconsistent Eagles secondary while their defense shut down the Eagles offense with DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown.
The Saints and the Falcons dueled it out in Atlanta behind two great performances on defense. A muffed punt and a pick-six were the difference in this one in a game the Saints wish they could have back. The Panthers look competitive with Andy Dalton under center as well. This division race will be one to monitor with three teams all fighting for that top spot
Current Standings:
Tampa Bay 3-1
Atlanta 2-2
New Orleans 2-2
Carolina 2-2
Overreaction Meter: 1
The Buffalo Bills are in trouble
The Ravens bullied the Bills last night as the final score was 35-10. The Ravens found success against the Bills rushing for 271 yards and only throwing 5 incompletions on the day. The Ravens 32nd ranked passing defense heading into this week shut down the Bills passing game holding them to 182 passing yards. The sheer dominance of the win was surprising as many viewed the Bills as the 2nd best team in the AFC heading into this week.
There are some concerns that are noteworthy with the Bills front seven. They have been successful rushing the passer but lack a true run-stopper within that unit. The injuries to Terrell Bernard and Matt Milano have not helped. On the offense, they got away from the run too early in last night’s game. Their rushing attack is what made them so dominant through three weeks. They will be fine long term, but this is a bump in the road for the Bills.
Overreaction Meter: 3
Deshaun Watson’s days in Cleveland are numbered
The Browns dropped to 1-3 after their loss to the Raiders without Devante Adams and Maxx Crosby. Their offense can’t seem to get it going with struggles in both the passing and running game. The most notable of the struggles is the poor play of Deshaun Watson.
Watson has been uninspiring this season passing for 727 yards with 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Their offense currently ranks in the bottom half of the league in points scored per game as well. Part of Watson’s struggles are from the poor play of the offensive line. As one of the highest-paid players in football, he needs to adapt to the challenges and overcome them. Unfortunately for Watson, it seems like his time in Cleveland may be coming to an end sooner than some people think.
Overreaction Meter: 1