As we approach Week 12 of the NFL season, the playoff race is heating up, and with it, the opportunities for savvy bettors to capitalize on player props. Whether you’re targeting individual performances or specific matchups, there are plenty of ways to get creative with your plays. Week 12 offers a wealth of intriguing player prop markets that can give you an edge. In this article, we’ll break down some of the best player props to consider as you prepare for another action-packed weekend of NFL football. Let’s dive into the key players and matchups that could deliver big value for your plays this weekend.
Best Week 12 Player Props
Baker Mayfield o1.5 Passing Touchdowns at -120
In six of his last seven games, Mayfield has surpassed this line despite missing his star receivers. He is now getting a healthy Mike Evans back who has been one of the best red zone threats over the last decade. The Giants come into the matchup ranked 11th in the league in opponents passing touchdowns per game. Despite a tougher matchup, I expect Mayfield to continue his hot streak through the air with the return of Mike Evans against a reeling Giants team.
Rico Dowdle 3+ Receptions at +105
Dowdle has received 8 targets in the last two weeks with 5 receptions since Cooper Rush took over as the Starting quarterback. He has established himself as the lead back in Dallas by leading the team in touches and snaps in his last three games. The Cowboys are expected to be in for another blowout loss against the Commanders this week. Dowdle will receive a healthy number of targets again this week and has had 3 or more receptions in five of nine games this season.
DJ Moore o50.5 Receiving Yards at -105
Moore among other Bears players look rejuvenated on offense after the firing of Shane Waldron. Moore finished last week hauling all 7 of his targets for 62 yards. The Vikings this season have been a favorable matchup for opposing receivers allowing 184.4 receiving yards per game. With the Bears’ offense trending up, this feels like a good value play this week.
Jonnu Smith 35+ Receiving Yards at -135
Smith is one of two tight ends this season with multiple performances of 90+ receiving yards and a touchdown. His role within the offense has made him the second most valuable pass catcher in the Dolphins offense. The Patriots this season are in the middle of the pack in terms of limiting tight ends, allowing 45.3 receiving yards per game to the position. With his current target share in the Dolphins offense, I expect Smith to continue his hot streak against the Patriots.
DeAndre Hopkins anytime TD at +175
In the last two weeks, we have seen Hopkins go against two secondaries who are one of the toughest matchups for outside receivers resulting in some disappointing performances with 0 red zone targets. In his prior two games against easier matchups, Hopkins had 3 red zone targets. Carolina is one of the more friendly wide receiver matchups for opposing receivers allowing 0.9 touchdowns per game to perimeter receivers. Hopkins should find his way into the end zone in a favorable matchup.
Analysis
Overall, the five leg parlay for these picks is at +3079 odds this week potentially providing a big cash out if we were able to hit on all five of our predictions. If there were a group of three picks that I was most confident in, I would pick Dowdle receptions, Smith receiving yards, and Mayfield touchdown passes. This puts our odds at +554 with a potential for a big win if we are correct on our picks.
For a full breakdown of each matchup ahead of Week 12 check out this video