Creator: Al Bello | Credit: Getty Images

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs’ offense faced notable struggles last season, primarily due to issues with their wide receiver corps. Patrick Mahomes, who is widely regarded as one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL, saw a dip in his touchdown production, ending the season with only 27 touchdowns compared to his career average of 36.5. However, the additions of Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown promise to bolster the receiving options for Mahomes, likely facilitating a return to his typical elite performance. Expect Mahomes to bounce back in 2024, making him a prime candidate for positive regression.

Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Derrick Henry’s transition to the Baltimore Ravens could signal a significant improvement in his rushing efficiency. Last season with the Titans, Henry ranked 52nd out of 57 qualified running backs with just 0.85 yards before contact per attempt. This was largely due to the Titans’ offense heavily relying on Henry, making him the focal point of opposing defenses. In Baltimore, the presence of dual-threat quarterback Lamar Jackson will divert some defensive attention, as evidenced by the 1.9 yards before contact per attempt that Ravens’ running backs averaged last season. Henry’s powerful running style combined with better blocking opportunities should lead to a resurgence in his production.

Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Saquon Barkley’s move to the Philadelphia Eagles presents a promising scenario for his fantasy value. In New York, Barkley often faced stacked boxes due to the Giants’ struggling passing game, resulting in a meager 0.98 yards before contact per attempt. The Eagles’ offensive line and scheme, which significantly benefited DeAndre Swift last season, are poised to enhance Barkley’s rushing efficiency. As a more talented back than Swift, Barkley is well-positioned to thrive in Philadelphia, making him a strong candidate for positive regression in 2024.

Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets

Garrett Wilson endured one of the worst quarterback situations in football last year, which severely impacted his fantasy output. With a catchable target rate of only 67.5%, Wilson struggled to showcase his true potential. The arrival of Aaron Rodgers, known for his precision and accuracy, is set to transform Wilson’s prospects. Rodgers’ proficiency in delivering catchable passes will likely elevate Wilson’s performance, making him a prime candidate for a breakout season.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons

Kyle Pitts experienced a challenging season in 2023, with a catchable target rate of just 69.8%, ranking 42nd among 43 qualified tight ends. The departure of head coach Arthur Smith and the addition of Kirk Cousins at quarterback provide Pitts with an excellent opportunity to rebound. Cousins’ history of utilizing tight ends effectively bodes well for Pitts, who has the talent to be a dominant force. Expect Pitts to significantly improve his production and fantasy value in 2024.

Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Tee Higgins had a tumultuous season last year, marked by a career-high drop rate of 12.5%, compared to his career average of 7.4%. Injuries to both Higgins and quarterback Joe Burrow disrupted their chemistry and hindered his performance. With a healthy offseason and a returning Burrow, Higgins is poised to revert to his reliable WR2 status. Fantasy managers should anticipate a bounce-back season for Higgins, solidifying his role as a key contributor in the Bengals’ high-powered offense.

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These players, each facing unique circumstances that hindered their performance last season, are well-positioned for a strong rebound in 2024. Keep an eye on them as potential value picks in your fantasy drafts.