Sunday’s game holds plenty of storylines and stakes just as any other Super Bowl. But which one is the good ending, which one is the bad one, and which are we getting?
For the second time in three years, the NFL season will be finalized by the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. In the first matchup, Kansas City won 38-35 on the heels of a controversial call in crunch time. Stop me if you’ve heard this one. But despite having the same two teams, I expect to see two completely different styles of football played by both sides than the ones we saw two years ago in Glendale, Arizona.
Some things will be similar to the first go around. Philadelphia in 2022 heading into the Super Bowl had the NFL’s number one-run game by EPA and number two defense by the same metric. This season, they have the top run game once again with the league’s number two defense. But the way they have done it is different. The run game in 2022 was spearheaded by a multi-back room of Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott behind a dominant OL (2nd in Run Block Win Rate). Fast forward two years and the rushing attack is largely created by another great line (9th in RBWR) with the Offensive Player of the Year in Saquon Barkley toting the rock. Defensively, the Eagles led the NFL in 2022 with a whopping 70 sacks, the third most ever by a team in a single season. With Vic Fangio taking the reigns on defense this year, the sack total was ranked only 13th, but the team was top 3 in both dropback EPA and rush EPA on the defensive side of the ball.
Fangio took a unit that relied on rushing the passer and a lot of Cover 3 (34%) and turned it into a youthful unit that ran more Cover 4 and Cover 6 (25% in 2023 vs 36.9% in 2024) with a heavier reliance on stuffing the run with big Jalen Carter. Rookie DBs Cooper Dejean and Quinyon Mitchell were placed into roles that fit their strengths, especially with Dejean in the slot. And perhaps the biggest difference maker has been Zack Baun, who went from playing 4.8% of snaps in the box with the Saints to 64.9% with the Eagles, becoming a first-team All-Pro. Fangio simply transformed this defense more than anyone, myself included, thought was possible. This is maybe the league’s best defense with eight starters aged 25 or younger.
While the Eagles took a brief hiatus from the big game last year, the Chiefs have essentially become the default AFC representative with their third straight appearance and fifth in six years. In Super Bowl 57, the Chiefs boasted the league’s top offense and a middle-of-the-pack defense. Fast forward and the Chiefs have a squad for the second straight year with the 15th-ranked offense by scoring and a top 5 defense. The Chiefs’ defense was shredded all night by Jalen Hurts two years ago, but I would expect a lower scoring game for both sides this time around. Both teams have elite defenses with good offenses. The Chiefs have allowed more than 24 points to just 3 teams all year. Much was made of the offense failing to score 30+ all year, but they put those narratives to bed with a 32-point outing when it was most needed two weeks ago against Buffalo.
Steve Spagnuolo has this defense ready to go, and we have seen countless times how he adjusts in the big moments against familiar opponents. They lost to Buffalo in November and countered against what worked for the Bills in the AFC title game. The same thing happened last year against Buffalo. And in 2022 against Cincinnati. With the unique combinations of blitz looks and simulated pressures, this defense will catch the Eagles at least a handful of times.
Offensively, some may say that the Chiefs aren’t necessarily elite at anything, but they are. 8th in EPA/play, 8th in dropback EPA, 13th in rush EPA, 15th in scoring offense. But what the Chiefs excel at is situational football. They are the 2nd best team in the NFL at converting 3rd downs and have the most plays per drive in the league. Kansas City grinds it out, shortens the game, and forces you to play their brand of football. Eventually, the opponent will make a costly error or two, but not the Chiefs. The coaching is better. The QB is better. Their experience is better. The Chiefs have simply been around the block too many times to get phased by the moment. They will not beat themselves. The odds are, the other team will.
Three matchups will determine this game. Here, I will briefly dig into them
Steve Spagnuolo vs Eagles Run Game
The Chiefs faced four of the league’s top ten rushers this season Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, Chuba Hubbard, and Bucky Irving. On average, these four ran for 86 yards a game. Spags held them to 159 yards. Less than 40 yards per game. When this team faces premier backs, they rise to the challenge and force the passing game to beat them. In all four games, this did not happen. Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Bryce Young, and Baker Mayfield all fell short. Spags is going to force Jalen Hurts to beat the blitz and find his pass catchers on the outside.
Advantage: Chiefs
Eagles MOF Passing vs Chiefs LBs and Safeties
The Chiefs’ weaknesses on film defensively show up in the middle of the field. In the playoffs, KC has run Cover 2 or Cover 4 on almost 44% of plays. With run stoppers like Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill at LB and the struggles at times from Bryan Cook and Jayden Hicks, the middle of the field has been a struggle. Jalen Hurts over the middle completes passes at an 82.7% clip for 1,260 yards and 9 touchdowns. However, 4 of his 5 INTs have come in the middle area. I expect the Chiefs to send blitzes all night, both to make it harder on Saquon and to pressure Hurts. If Hurts and the OL can hold up, the middle of the field will be open for Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.
Advantage: Eagles
Jalen Hurts vs The Blitz
This seems to be the biggest key in this one. In Super Bowl LVII, Hurts picked apart this Chiefs defense and wasn’t really affected by the blitz. This season, he is one of the most efficient QBs in the league against the blitz with an EPA per dropback of 0.25. Spagnuolo is going to have to scheme up some looks that the Eagles haven’t seen on tape, especially in the fourth quarter. He was able to do this against Brock Purdy last season and if he can dial up a simulated pressure like he did to finish off Buffalo with Justin Reid and Trent McDuffie coming off the edge, it could win this one for KC. But this is an elite OL and a QB who has seen KC on this stage before.
Advantage: Eagles
Across the board, all signs point to an Eagles win, for their second championship since 2017. They have the better OL, better run game, better pass catchers, better DL, better run-stopping defense, and better secondary. Here’s the issue: The Chiefs have Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and Steve Spagnuolo. You can argue the Chiefs had the worst collective roster in all three of their previous Super Bowl wins of this era. They won because of these three.
I expect this game to be competitive throughout. I think the Chiefs will jump out early and eventually fall behind, once again trailing in the second half and fourth quarter. But if the Eagles give Patrick Mahomes a chance to win this one at the end with a shot at history, it is nearly impossible to not expect 15 to get it done. The Chiefs will go down the field and win the game with a last-second touchdown, furthering their dynasty and making history as the first team to win Back-to-back-to-back Super Bowl titles. Mahomes won’t pass Brady with this, but it will be hard to argue with anyone else over the guy with 4 rings before his 30th birthday.
Chiefs 27, Eagles 24