The Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers matchup on Monday Night is all that is left in Week 12. As always, there were eye-catching performances around the NFL for good and bad reasons in fantasy football. Let’s take a look at some of the biggest takeaways from Week 12.
Week 12 Takeaways
Bucky Irving is a Weekly Starter
Irving delivered on his promises as a must start option ahead of Week 12 with his best fantasy performance of the season with 27.1 points, thanks to 87 rushing yards, a touchdown, and six receptions for 64 yards. Managers who trusted him were rewarded, especially as his role in the passing game seems to be growing each week. The Bucs started the game with a three-man running back rotation between him, Rachaad White, and Sean Tucker. Irving proved to be the best of the bunch with White finishing with 3.1 YPC while Tucker fumbled on the goal line.
The Buccaneers’ offensive line, ranked ninth in run block win rate, dominated the Giants’ defense, and Irving capitalized on every opportunity. This was his seventh week scoring 10 or more fantasy points, and his fifth with over 15. With favorable matchups ahead, including games against Carolina and Las Vegas, Irving’s outlook is even brighter. Despite competition from White and Sean Tucker, Irving should be viewed as a weekly starter in all formats.
JSN and Courtland Sutton Blossoming into WR1 Territory
JSN has solidified his status as a reliable fantasy starter. Even with the return of D.K. Metcalf, JSN has continued to thrive, posting 6-77-1 in Week 12, despite the Seahawks only managing 16 points as a team. Since Week 8, he’s been the WR3 in points per game, with no performance dipping below 12.9 fantasy points. In his last three performances he has not failed to go below 19.7 points. His growth has been clear, as he has overtaken Tyler Lockett on the depth chart and now sits as a strong 1A alongside Metcalf.
Sutton has also been on fire as of late earning himself into the conversation of being a WR1. Since being held without a catch in Week 7, he has posted no outings below 14.8 points with two outings over 23 points. The improved play from Bo Nix has helped raise Sutton’s weekly floor and has turned him into a consistent option. The Broncos have favorable matchups against the Browns, Colts, and Bengals left on the schedule providing him the perfect opportunity to continue his hot streak.
Another Kliff Kingsbury Second Half Disaster
In the first three quarters of the last two games, the Commanders have managed 19 total points with their offense struggling to move the ball. Until the Commanders have been down by two scores, the offense kicks into gear. This week we saw Jayden Daniels have a monster point total due to a late rushing touchdown and 86 yard miracle touchdown to Terry McLaurin. Before that point it was going to be Daniels third straight outing below 20 fantasy points. Outside of Jayden Daniels, other Commanders fantasy options have struggled to match their early season production. This decline of production in the second half of the season is a familiar fate for Kliff Kingsbury offenses.
Kingsbury’s offenses have continued to trend in the wrong direction in the second half of the season. Above is a chart of Kingsbury’s offenses EPA per play in the first half and second half of the season. I am not convinced this Commanders offense rounds out to form before the end of the season. Brian Robinson Jr. has been banged up all season and has been game script dependent. Terry McLaurin currently ranks 98th in route win rate while having less fantasy points expected than his current total. Jayden Daniels efficiency and rushing volume has regressed making him less valuable despite a favorable schedule. The Commanders rest of season outlook is concerning.
Running Back Notes
With the chance to capitalize on a perfect matchup, the Patriots decided to decrease Rhamondre Stevenson’s role on Sunday. Gibson led the backfield in offensive snaps at 30 and the team in rushing yards at 31. Stevenson on the other hand finished with 29 snaps while finishing with just 13 rushing yards on eight attempts. Inefficiency has been the name of the game for Stevenson this season failing to average 4 yards per carry in all but two games. It is hard to blame Stevenson. the Patriots’ offensive line has the 55th-best run-blocking rating among running backs when he is back there. I am not sure I can trust either Patriots’ back in my starting lineup right now.
After the benching and release of Daniel Jones, the Giants made it clear that they were starting to look towards next season. Offensively they decided to roll out a three-man running back rotation despite the success of Tyrone Tracy this season. Tracy still operated as the lead early down back for the Giants but saw limited snaps on third down. It is an interesting strategy to decrease the former wide receiver’s routes run out of the backfield for a veteran back who has never made a significant impact in passing situations in his career. I am concerned about how Daboll is utilizing Tracy, and it may affect the rest of his season outlook despite a good playoff schedule.
After the injuries to Alexander Mattison and Zamir White, Ameer Abdullah stepped up as the primary running back for the Raiders. He finished the game with an 89.6% snap share while having 14 opportunities that resulted in 17.5 points. Sincere McCormick had a nice day on the ground with 5 carries for 33 yards and could see an increased role this week. The Raiders have a short week and play on Black Friday against the Chiefs. Abdullah is worth holding on your roster or picking up ahead of that matchup if you are in desperate need of a running back with Mattison and White still recovering.
Another week, another shift in the Broncos running back usage. Jaleel McLaughlin was this week’s beneficiary as he led the team with 44 rushing yards which resulted in an increase in snaps. Williams had a rough day on the ground with -2 rushing yards but managed to play the most snaps while being the only running back with a reception. Audric Estime was once again a non-factor as he only played five total snaps and seems to have the lowest floor of the backs. Overall, none of these players are worth putting in your lineups right now given the fluidity in the Broncos backfield.
Thomas Brown has given us a clear picture of how the Bears will utilize their running backs for the rest of the season. D’Andre Swift will operate as the primary early down back while Roschon Johnson with play on third downs, two-minute drill, and goal line snaps. Swift’s floor is lower than it has been in the past and only finished with one more PPR point than Johnson this past week. Johnson should be rostered in all formats while Swift’s reduced role makes him a risky weekly starter.
Pass Catcher Notes
The Chiefs continue to mix and match their wide receiver position, with no players playing above 65% of the snaps. Most notably, DeAndre Hopkins played the fourth-most snaps this week on the team. Since the return of Juju Smith-Shuster, Hopkins’ snap share has decreased in both weeks. I am unsure what Andy Reid sees in Justin Watson as he currently ranks 125th among wide receivers in route win rate. Although Hopkins has had a meaningful impact on the offense, with a low snap share it is hard to trust him every week in your lineup.
On the other side of the field, the Carolina Panthers finally got Adam Thielen back from his hamstring injury. Thielen played the third most snaps among Panthers’ receivers while finishing with 4 targets in the loss. He operated primarily in the slot leaving opportunities outside for Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette, and David Moore. Moore had a monster day with 6 catches for 81 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets which will likely lead to a four-man rotation in Carolina. If I were to trust a Panthers’ receiver right now, it would be Xavier Legette who has been a red zone threat all season and continues to improve weekly.
Mike Evans returned from his hamstring injury and played more than I was expecting finishing second on the team in snaps, routes run, and targets in the blowout win over the Giants. On top of the Evans return, the Bucs also got Jalen McMillian back from injury. He led the team in snaps played but it only resulted in two targets. Evans and McMillian operated as the primary outside receivers while Sterling Shepard was in the slot. Outside of Mike Evans, I do not think any other receivers on the Bucs are worth rostering.
T.J. Hockenson continues to increase his role weekly in the Vikings offense post-injury. This week he played a season high in snaps while playing 38 of 42 snaps in 11 personnel. Against a good Bears’ defense, he finished with 7 catches for 114 yards. Hockenson is starting to return to form right ahead of the fantasy playoffs and should be a lineup lock at this point.
Breakout Performances
Each Week I like to highlight three players whose stock is rising after a breakout performance. Jordan Addison is the first player I would like to mention after his 8 catches and 162 yards. If teams continue to double/triple team Justin Jefferson, a healthy Addison could be valuable down the stretch. It has been a long season for Jaylen Waddle, but he deserves some flowers after his 144-yard outing. I am not convinced that he is back, but it is a positive sign. Also, Noah Gray has been a touchdown machine as of late for the Chiefs and finished with 22 points this week. Gray’s dynasty stock is rising quickly, get in while you can.
The Top 10 Scoring Performances
Saquon Barkley continues his dominant 2024 campaign and has worked his way into the MVP conversation after 500+ total yards in the last two weeks. It’s wild that Jayden Daniels was the second highest scorer despite the concerns I have for the Commanders offense. Of the players not yet mentioned in this article, Tua Tagovailoa is proving himself to be a valuable streamer ahead of the fantasy playoffs. Below are the Top 10 scorers for the week.
- Saquon Barkley RB (PHI): 46.2 Points
- Jayden Daniels QB (WAS): 30.4 Points
- Jordan Addison WR (MIN): 30.2 Points
- Courtland Sutton WR (DEN): 29.7 Points
- Patrick Mahomes QB (KC): 28.76 Points
- Josh Jacobs RB (GB): 28.60 Points
- Tua Tagovialoa QB (MIA): 28.9 Points
- Jaylen Waddle WR (MIA): 28.4 Points
- Bucky Irving RB (TB): 27.1 Points
- D.J. Moore WR (CHI): 26.9 Points
Injury Notes
The injury report is deeper this week after a quiet week last week. David Montgomery left the game with a shoulder injury but claims he will be good to go on Thursday. Romeo Doubs, Austin Ekeler, and Ja’Tavion Sanders suffered concussions putting their availabilities for Week 13 in jeopardy. Garnder Minshew is out for the season with a broken collarbone and Aidan O’Connell, or Desmond Ridder will fill in. Brian Robinson Jr left the game with an ankle injury but returned only to be pulled two series later. Robinson has been dealing with injuries the whole season and I am concerned about his availability ahead. Josh Downs is doubtful to play this week and is considered week to week.
Garnder Minshew QB (LV): Out for the Season
Romeo Doubs WR (GB): Week to Week
Austin Ekeler RB (WAS): Week to Week
Brian Robinson Jr. RB (WAS): Day to Day
David Montgomery RB (DET): Day to Day
Ja’Tavion Sanders TE (CAR): Week to Week
Josh Downs WR (IND): Week to Week
For all of the Week 12 Reactions in Fantasy Football check out this YouTube Video