Welcome to Blitz Sports Media’s Fantasy Football “Panic Meter”. Each week we will identify some of the disappointing performances from the prior week to identify if it is time to panic about a certain player. Below is the official Blitz Sports Media panic meter discussing the reasoning behind each panic meter level.
Let’s get into all of the players who made this week’s version of the panic meter.
Tyreek Hill WR (MIA)
Panic Meter: 2.5
For weeks, his underwhelming performance had been chalked up to the absence of his star quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, but it turns out there’s more to the story. Since Tagovailoa’s return, Hill has been averaging just 56 yards per game and a mere 12.3 PPR points, which, while slightly better than his numbers without Tua, still falls drastically short of expectations. Last season, Hill was nearly unstoppable, with only six games under 25 PPR points and only three under 15. This season, he hasn’t cracked 14 PPR points or reached the top 25 of fantasy wide receivers since Week 1.
Hill’s struggles seem to be a combination of both injury and scheme changes. The wrist injury, which has reportedly been bothering him since training camp could be hurting his play on the field. While the Dolphins’ offense has shifted, with Miami now posting the second-lowest wide receiver target share in the league (49.1%). The Dolphins are no longer an offense that relies on deep throws, with Tagovailoa ranking 36th in deep throw attempt rate and holding the lowest average intended air yards in the league. This drop in deep-ball opportunities and the lingering wrist injury paint a troubling picture of Hill’s fantasy outlook.
J.K. Dobbins RB (LAC)
Panic Meter: 2
J.K. Dobbins’ fantasy value took a hit last week with the return of Gus Edwards, as his opportunity share dropped to 56.5%. Dobbins received 15 carries while Edwards received 10 carries. While his overall workload decreased, there were positive signs for Dobbins, as he recorded his highest route participation rate (74%) and target share (17%) of the season. His 18 total touches, despite the limited carries, suggest that he still has a role in the offense, especially in the passing game.
Dobbins has only been averaging only 3.5 yards per carry, and his efficiency has been subpar, ranking 125th among running backs in expected points added (EPA). He also has a lower expected fantasy point per game than his current production suggests. Dobbins has benefitted from one of the best game scripts for running backs this season, but with six straight matchups against playoff contenders on the horizon, his opportunities will likely become more limited. The return of Edwards only adds to the uncertainty, as Dobbins’ share of the backfield may continue to shrink, making him a risky RB2 as the season progresses.
CeeDee Lamb WR (DAL)
Panic Meter: 2
All of the numbers behind CeeDee Lamb’s play with Cooper Rush in the past went out the window after Sunday’s abysmal performance from the Cowboys offense. Rush and Trey Lance combined for 64 passing yards managing 6 points on the day. Lamb finished with 6 catches for 21 yards on 10 targets in the loss. With the news that Dak Prescott had season-ending surgery, Lamb will be stuck with poor quarterback play for the rest of the season.
So why is CeeDee only a 2 on the Panic Meter? He will continue to see a healthy target share and has a favorable schedule ahead. He ranks 10th among wide receivers this season in target share while maintaining the 12th most air yards among wide receivers. Lamb may not be a Top 6 option at receiver anymore but should be viewed as a wide receiver two with better weeks ahead.
Brian Thomas Jr. WR (JAX)
Panic Meter: 2
Since dealing with a chest injury after Week 8, Thomas has 4 catches for 34 receiving yards resulting in 9.4 points. The chest injury has limited him in practice, but on gameday has led all of the Jaguars wide receivers in snaps and routes run in the last two weeks. Through Weeks 1-8 Thomas was having a stellar rookie campaign averaging 15.2 points per game and still ranks 6th in fantasy points per target. The Jaguars have also turned to Mac Jones with the injury to Trevor Lawrence hurting all of their wide receivers’ values.
On the bright side for BTJ owners, Trevor Lawrence is not expected to be out for the season with his shoulder injury and has a chance to return after the team’s bye week. While that is encouraging for the fantasy playoffs, in the present Mac Jones is still the starting quarterback. Jones targeted tight ends at a 48% clip despite the Vikings ranking top five in the NFL in receiver yards allowed heading into Week 10. With Jones at quarterback, fantasy managers should view the 22-year-old as a WR3/Flex option against the Lions this week.
Breece Hall RB (NYJ)
Panic Meter: 2
Hall has been incredibly inconsistent this season with five games over 18 points while also having five games below 12.5 points. Despite averaging over 5 yards per carry, Hall has not finished over that 12.5-point mark since Week 7. The Jets offense continues to struggle due to a poor offensive line, bad coaching, and an aging quarterback. Digging deeper into the data, Hall has the 53rd best run blocking ahead of him among running backs while facing the 34th highest light fronts. The Jets offensive line has struggled to handle stacked boxes preventing Hall from getting going on the ground.
As I have mentioned in the past with Hall, it is best to temper your expectations with him. He is not living up to the hype of the 2nd running back off of draft boards this offseason as he currently ranks 16th among running backs in points per game. His expected fantasy points per game are 16.7 which would put him as the RB10. We should be viewing Hall as a low end RB1 due to his volume on the ground and through the air but a lack of blocking will continue to make the young running back inconsistent.
Javonte Williams RB (DEN)
Panic Meter: 3
Williams streak of double-digit touches came crashing down in Week 10 against the Chiefs. He finished with 1 carry for 1 yard and 2 receptions for 6 yards resulting in 2.7 fantasy points. Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin took a back seat to Audric Estime, which resulted in a season low 27% snap share for Williams. With an unclear role in the Broncos offense, Williams finds himself on the Panic Meter.
While some may be panic dropping Williams, I think he is worth holding onto until we get a clear picture of how this backfield will operate this week. This season he ranks 6th among running backs in receptions while also ranking 9th in yards per route run. Estime finished last week with 0 receptions and only 2 third down snaps. My prediction is that Williams will continue to operate as the third down back in Denver but lose early down touches. This puts him as a borderline flex option going forward that should be played based on favorable matchups.
Cut List | Panic Meter: 5
Cole Kmet TE (CHI)
Xavier Worthy WR (KC)
Tua Tagovailoa QB (MIA)
Jaleel McLaughlin RB (DEN)
Jordan Mason RB (SF)