Welcome to Blitz Sports Media’s Fantasy Football “Panic Meter”. Each week we will identify some of the disappointing performances from the prior week to identify if it is time to panic about a certain player. Below is the official Blitz Sports Media panic meter discussing the reasoning behind each panic meter level.
Let’s get into all of the players who made this week’s version of the panic meter.
Jayden Daniels QB (WAS)
Panic Meter: 2
After the last few weeks post rib injury, it is safe to say that Jayden Daniels has not been performing at the level he did to start the season. In his last four games, he has three performances below 20 points and would have four if not for a Hail Mary in Week 8. In the last two weeks, he has combined for 23 points with only 1 touchdown and 10 rushing attempts. Dan Quinn confirms that the Rib Injury is “Not Lingering” but I am not completely buying it based on his usage as a runner. As good as Daniels was to start the season, it is becoming tricky with many viable streaming options this year at quarterback and playoff hopes on the line in the next three weeks.
One of my biggest takeaways with Daniels is that he will continue to see less volume on the ground with his rib injury hurting his floor. Despite only throwing 6 touchdowns in the first six weeks, Daniels was a top option in fantasy because he was averaging over 10 attempts on the ground and found the end zone 4 times. In the next two weeks, I expect him to have good weeks against favorable matchups in the Cowboys and Titans. The question for him the rest of the season will be can his passing numbers get him to 20 points weekly with less rushing volume?
D’Andre Swift RB (CHI)
Panic Meter: 3
The Bears’ offense shifted after the firing of Shane Waldron and with Thomas Brown at the helm. Swift’s snap share decreased to 54% and we saw Roschon Johnson take valuable snaps on 3rd down, two-minute drill, and goal line work. Johnson set a season-high in both snap share and rushing share on top of taking over the valuable snaps. Swift was still able to have a nice day in fantasy with 16.4 points on 16 touches, but the usage concerns are real for the veteran running back.
Swift’s remaining schedule looks more challenging, shifting from the second easiest to the second toughest. The tough schedule and a decreased workload do not bode well for the veteran who is only averaging 4.1 yards per carry this season. Ahead of the fantasy playoffs, Swift is trending in the wrong direction and should be viewed as a low-end RB2 for the rest of the season.
Amari Cooper WR (BUF)
Panic Meter: 4
Since Coopers, debut in Buffalo we have been excited about his long-term value in his new home. Since his 4 catches 66-yard performance with a touchdown on limited snaps, it has been frustrating as an Amari Cooper owner. Cooper has missed time with a wrist injury and when he has played, he has operated as the Bills WR4 while being limited to just five targets. With no Keon Coleman last week against the Chiefs, we were expecting more from the veteran.
Ultimately Cooper is a WR3 for the rest of the season in fantasy football. I do think his snaps will continue to increase as he gets healthier and more familiar with the Bills playbook. Even when Cooper does get up to speed, he will be splitting targets with Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, and James Cook in the Bills passing game. I don’t see a route right now where Cooper lives up to the expectations that were bestowed upon him after the trade to the Bills a few weeks ago.
Deebo Samuel WR (SF)
Panic Meter: 2
Since Week 6, Deebo has had zero performances over 12.6 fantasy points and finished with 6.1 last week against the Seahawks. His carries have decreased this season and currently averages 5.6 targets per game which would be his lowest mark since his rookie year. What is more concerning with Samuel is that his targets are not valuable, he currently ranks 83rd in the league in average target distance this season. Where he has been as successful is his targets in the red zone rankings 8th in the NFL while ranking 10th in the NFL in yards after the catch.
The red flags are legitimate for Deebo as he looks to turn around his disappointing performances as of late. The lack of volume with the low air yards makes him a risky play weekly. Jauan Jennings has become the most valuable receiver to own in San Francisco with Samuel’s value taking a hit. The positives are that he has a positive TD regression coming and is still one of the best in the NFL with the ball in his hands. He should be viewed as a low-end WR2 ahead of his tough three-game stretch.
Tucker Kraft TE (GB)
Panic Meter: 3
Kraft was barely involved in the Packers’ wild win over the Bears in Week 11. He received just one target, which resulted in an interception by Chicago’s Terell Smith in the second quarter. Although the Packers had only 17 passing attempts, putting up 0 points will earn your way onto this list. Among tight ends, Kraft now ranks 18th in target share and 24th in air yards share which paints the picture for his low floor. He currently is tied for 2nd right now in touchdowns among tight ends allowing him to rank within the top ten tight ends this year.
Kraft may rank as a top ten tight end this season but his expected fantasy points per game sit at 20th. As the Packers prepare to face the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12, Kraft’s fantasy football value remains modest. Given the limited passing volume and his low involvement in the offense, Kraft is best considered a low-end TE1.
Malik Nabers WR (NYG)
Panic Meter: 1.5
Since returning from a concussion in Week 7, Nabers has been the WR40 in fantasy points per game. Opposing defenses have shifted their gameplans trying to limit Nabers and it has resulted in less separation. The Giants are turning to Danny DeVito at quarterback, which will hurt Nabers who has the 4th highest air yards share among wide receivers. DeVito’s 6.2 yards per attempt (YPA) is close to Jones’ 6.5, but his 17.2% sack rate and lower average depth of target suggest that the offense may struggle even more. Despite Nabers role in this offense, he has not seen a red zone target since Week 4.
Ultimately, I think Nabers is the least of my worries on this week’s Panic Meter. The volume is still there for Nabers to produce as he has 42 targets in the last four weeks and currently leads all receivers in 24.8 expected fantasy points per game this season. DeVito’s production will not be a significant drop-off from Jones which will keep Nabers in that top echelon of receivers. Despite concerns, Nabers’ talent, potential regression, and favorable schedule could still lead to top-12 wide receiver production down the stretch.
Cut List | Panic Meter: 5
Diontae Johnson WR (BAL)
Pat Freiermuth TE (PIT)
Khalil Herbert RB (CIN)
Mike Gesicki TE (CIN)
Audric Estime RB (DEN)