Week 12 is the 2nd week of offering fantasy football projections for Wide Receivers. We’re making the effort to ramp up the quality, exercising due diligence to delist receivers on bye weeks, listed as “Out” or on “Injured Reserve,” or who’ve already played in the Thursday Night game. The visualization of the tables has also been augmented with color bands to make it easier to find the tier of receivers that are of the most interest to you.
If everyone in the upper tiers is already spoken for, then drop to the groups that are more likely to have available options. The receivers with the fantasy football projections of around 10 or 11 PPR (and lower) exhibit a reduced percentage of leagues in which they are rostered. Mileage may vary so confirm with your league’s information. Likewise, players listed as “Questionable” have not been filtered out, so keep an eye on injury reports and game day updates.
Refresher on the formulas used for the fantasy football projections
It’s all based on a player’s actual weekly game results, adjusted according to the defense each player is up against:
- Each active receiver’s projected receptions, yardage, and likelihood of scoring are estimated.
- Each defensive’s output for receptions, passing yards, and touchdowns allowed are used to calculate the difference from the league average.
- This difference is then used to adjust each receiver’s potential output.
- That output is projected into PPR value.
NOTE: The Defense Adjusted totals are provided so you can calculate against a different fantasy football point system.
Receivers are further color-coded into loosely defined tiers based on the Fantasy Football Projections. Click the links to jump to each section.
Wide Receiver 1
While most of these receivers are already in someone else’s lineup, there is a diamond in the rough that you should look into. Quention Johnson of the LA Chargers may be available. He’s been scoring in the double digits across the last 3 weeks and is only rostered in about 60% of leagues.
I am also projecting him to score even better over his recent average, based on the matchup with Baltimore.
Wide Receiver 2
A number of the receivers below the centerline of this tier, starting with Wan’Dale Robinson, begin to show increasing availability. Some name brand receivers like Deebo Samuel are not likely to be free but there are some good sleepers in the bunch:
- Darius Slayton is rostered in as few as 9% of leagues, so make your move on him
- Tyler Lockett has loads of value since Geno Smith is fighting for the number 1 spot for total passing yards. He is rostered in more leagues than Slayton, but it’s still as few as 63%.
- Rashad Bateman is another commodity that should be available to pick up on waivers. I’m projecting him to be slightly above his average, but his numbers are often inconsistent since he serves more as a deep ball threat. These are just things to be aware of.
Wide Receiver 3
In this group there should be lots of options to choose from that still have promising fantasy football projections.
- Personally, the player I see with the highest fantasy football projection over his average, in this tier, is Wesbrook-Ikhine. His target volume is at the low end, but his prospects for a touchdown are the highest among the players in this tier.
- On the other hand, Demarcus Robinson has the largest downward fantasy football projection. He already suffers from a poor catch rate and the Philly defense is likely to exasperate that.
- Finally, another call-out is Josh Palmer on the LA Chargers. His target volume is also somewhat low, but the Chargers are making their move late in the season. He could see more targets, but more importantly, the Baltimore secondary is vulnerable to deep ball passing where he can accumulate yards.
Wide Receiver 4
Hopefully you don’t need to reach this low in the wide receiver depths. But if you do… these guys are there for you. Overall, the thing to do is pay attention to teams with good quarterbacks but are facing tough passing defenses. I say this because I’m inferring that the defensive scheme will focus on the top 2 or 3 targets, which means a capable quarterback can move through his progressions to find tertiary targets.
This is where I look at Tutu Atwell or Dontayvion Wicks come in. The Eagles and Niners defenses are exceptional, but these two receivers provide their respective offenses with the depth needed to contend with those dangerous defensive backs.
The same as last week, I hope this breakdown on fantasy football projections helps to make a difference in your week 12 outcomes. Pour over the list, pay attention to the defenses that drive the best and worst adjustments, and keep an eye on those injury updates. Also… keep an eye out for this piece each week. It will impact your fantasy football results… says me.