Welcome to Blitz Sports Media’s Fantasy Football “Panic Meter”. Each week we will identify some of the disappointing performances from the prior week to identify if it is time to panic about a certain player. Below is the official Blitz Sports Media panic meter discussing the reasoning behind each panic meter level.
This Week’s version of the Panic Meter was delayed one day and will be a shorter list due to the schedule change. Let’s get into all of the players who made this week’s version of the panic meter.
Cade Otton TE (TB)
Panic Meter: 2
Cade Otton had the perfect matchup against the Panthers to provide a bounce-back performance but ultimately only finished with 4 catches for 20 yards on 7 targets. This is Otton’s third straight game under 10 fantasy points, and he has not reached 40 yards since Week 9. This season, he ranks 32nd among tight ends in average target depth, and the last few weeks have seen his target share decrease, ultimately leading to these disappointing performances. When Otton was balling out his snap percentages lined up out wide were over 20% that number has not topped 12.1% in the last four weeks.
The concerns are real for Otton after his recent struggles. I do not think he will return to being a top six option like he was in the middle of the season, but he still holds value as a high-end TE2. Otton is still the second option in the passing game and is on the field over 80% of the time providing him with the opportunity to overcome a poor ADOT. The schedule is favorable coming up with a matchup against the Raiders this week and another matchup against the Panthers in Week 17.
Aaron Jones RB (MIN)
Panic Meter: 2
Aaron Jones has been trending in the wrong direction in the last few weeks with only one performance over 12.2 points in the last six weeks. Jones salvaged an inefficient day by catching a game-winning touchdown. He finished the day with 5 carries for 22 yards while hauling in 3 catches for 6 yards and that receiving touchdown. Jones has struggled with fumbles in recent weeks with two on Sunday and has fumbled in four straight games. This led to Jones only playing 17 snaps in the second half while Cam Akers saw 13 snaps.
The veteran has a good track record but with the number of fumbles he has had in recent weeks, I am not sure he returns to the bell-cow role he started the season with. Both Akers and Ty Chandler appear to have increasing roles within the Vikings offense due to Jones’ struggles. Jones in his last six games has fallen below 4 yards per carry three times and with a lack of efficiency, he will not be able to capitalize on a reduced role. The Vikings have a decent playoff schedule, but Jones’ rest-of-the-season outlook is grim.
Garrett Wilson WR (NYJ)
Panic Meter: 2
After a disappointing Week 13, Garrett Wilson has now posted fewer than 10 PPR points in three straight games, averaging just 33.3 yards per game during this stretch. The Jets’ offense is what it is at this point in the season and all of their fantasy options continue to be inconsistent every week. While his target volume is still healthy, he hasn’t surpassed 50 yards in his last three games. This season he is 6th in target share, 12th in air yards share, and 9th in route wins. What has destroyed his value is his 90th ADOT which can be attributed to Rodgers poor play and the offensive scheme in New York.
His role in the offense has been significantly impacted by Adams’ emergence, making Wilson harder to trust. Though Wilson does have some favorable matchups ahead, it’s difficult to rely on him at this point. His rest of the season outlook is more of a high-upside Flex option than a WR2. It is hard to look past the 28.3% target share and leave him on your bench, but your expectations should be tempered.
D’Andre Swift RB (CHI)
Panic Meter: 3
A situation to monitor ahead of Week 14 was that Swift sat out of practice Wednesday due to a quad injury. I do not expect it to keep him out this week but something that Swift owners need to be aware of. D’Andre Swift has now finished under 10 fantasy points in three of his last four games while failing to rush for over 60 yards in four of his last five games. Efficiency is not Swift’s game as he ranks 30th in the NFL in yards per touch among running backs while ranking 86th in EPA. Swift has also seen his role decrease in the Bears’ offense since the offensive coordinator change.
With a lack of efficiency and the downward trend in usage, I am hesitant about Swift for the rest of the season. He has the 9th hardest rest-of-season schedule among running backs making it even more difficult to trust him. While I know some teams can’t afford to bench him, he is not a lineup lock every week.
Deebo Samuel WR (SF)
Panic Meter: 3
Deebo Samuel has hit an all-time low in fantasy football with his 3rd straight game below 6.5 PPR points and 25 receiving yards. Since Week 6 he has only gone over 12.6 fantasy points twice and since Week 4 he is averaging 7.7 points per game. This season Samuel ranks 200th in EPA while having the 89th ADOT and has received less than a 20% target share in four straight weeks. The volume is down, the efficiency is down, and he is not getting the ball down the field.
So, what does this mean for the future of Deebo in 2024? Let’s just say that he should never be seeing another starting lineup this season. Name value aside, it is hard to trust someone who is the third option in the passing game and does not see valuable targets down the field. I am encouraged that he will see more rushing volume with Christian McCaffrey out, but that is no guarantee. I would not drop him but leaving him out of your starting lineup is the right move at this point.
Cut List | Panic Meter: 5
C.J. Stroud QB (HOU)
Kareem Hunt RB (KC)
Wan’Dale Robinson WR (NYG)
Kyle Pitts TE (ATL)
Justin Tucker K (BAL)
Check out all of the Week 13 Reactions from around Fantasy Football
