The Buccaneers come into Week Five riding the momentum of a dominating win over the Philadelphia Eagles after a disappointing loss to Denver. After back-to-back home games, the Bucs travel to Atlanta. They, like the Bucs, are riding high after a victory over NFC South divisional rival New Orleans. Younghoe Koo kicked a last-second 58-yarder to send the Falcons to a 2-2 record.
Now, the two square off in Mercedes Benz Stadium on Thursday Night with first place in the South on the line. Although the Bucs are a game better at 3-1, a Falcons win would put both at 3-2 with the Falcons holding the head-to-head tiebreaker. As we prepare for the game, here are the four biggest matchups of the night that will determine which team continues their winning ways from last week.
1. Falcons Secondary Vs. Bucs Pass Catchers
Chris Godwin has gotten off to a blazing start this year in his second year with Baker Mayfield. The former Penn State Wideout is 7th in yards, 2nd in TDs, 3rd in catches and 6th in receiving EPA. How will the Falcons defend him? Dee Alford has been the Falcons primary slot defender, where Godwin lines up on 62.9% of his snaps. Alford against Philly, KC and New Orleans has allowed 11 catches on 12 targets for 88 yards and a touchdown on the primary slot receivers.
As for Mike Evans, in his career against the Falcons, he has amassed 92 catches for 1,407 yards and 11 TDs in 18 games. Last year with Mayfield, Evans had 7 catches for 90 yards and a score in 2 games. The most recent matchup, Evans was held in check, having just 1 catch for 8 yards on 6 targets. With AJ Terrell in coverage, Evans had just 2 targets without a catch.
2. Kirktober
Kirk Cousins has traditionally been a very good QB in the month of October. Since 2020, Cousins is 11-5 in the month. In the 16 games, Cousins has thrown for 4,119 yards and 27 TDs. The Falcons have an October slate of Tampa Bay twice, the Panthers and the Seahawks. It will be a pivotal month in the division for Atlanta, and it starts tonight. If Kirk can go crazy in October, the Falcons will be looking great.
3. Falcons Running Game
The Falcons, despite having Bijan Robinson, are only 29th in Rush EPA/play. Under Zac Robinson the team is 21st in stuffed rate and has faced the 6th highest % of light boxes. The Bucs Rush Defense has allowed the worst EPA/rush so far this season, so something has to give. Despite Vita Vea being a force on the interior, the unit has struggled. They have allowed the fourth most yards per play on run plays. Look for the Falcons to try and get their run game on track Thursday night.
4. Bucs OL vs Falcons Pass Rush
The Falcons have the worst pressure % on opposing QBs of any team in the league, despite gaining Matthew Judon late in the offseason. The Bucs, meanwhile, are 28th in pass block win rate, yet 14th in pass blocking grade per PFF. They’ve allowed the 14th highest pressure rate, so by most accounts it’s an average to slightly below average unit going against a league worst unit. If the Bucs can control the line of scrimmage, they have a great chance.