Welcome to Blitz Sports Media’s Fantasy Football “Panic Meter”. Each week we will identify some of the disappointing performances from the prior week to identify if it is time to panic about a certain player. Below is the official Blitz Sports Media panic meter discussing the reasoning behind each panic meter level.
Let’s get into all of the players who made this week’s version of the panic meter.
Patrick Mahomes QB (KC)
Panic Meter: 3.5
Mahomes struggles this season have been well documented as he currently has more interceptions than touchdowns passes through 6 games this season. In fantasy, he currently averages 13.8 points per game and has yet to top 17 points in a game this season. Mahomes brutal performances in fantasy can be attributed to a few different reasons. Let’s start with Mahomes himself, he is currently playing the worst football of his career, but it is safe to say he will play better down the stretch. The Chiefs changes on offense are more concerning for Mahomes long term output.
The Chiefs have turned into one of the most run heavy teams in the NFL with the injuries at receiver and has resulted in less volume for Mahomes. It is hard to blame the Chiefs from changing their style of play considering what they have in the receiver room. Here are the current receivers ranks in route win rate Worthy 94th, Watson 128th, and Skyy Moore does not qualify with his 15% route win rate. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins helps Mahomes outlook as he excels in finding soft spots in zone defenses while being a plus in the red zone. There are better days ahead for Mahomes, but it’s hard to trust him in your starting lineup.
Diontae Johnson WR (CAR)
Panic Meter: 2
In a favorable matchup, the Panthers offense was nonexistent against the Commanders last week. Andy Dalton finished with under 100 passing yards, and it led to Diontae Johnson finishing with 1 catch for 17 yards on 3 targets. This season, Johnson now has 4 weeks under 6 fantasy points and 3 weeks over 19 fantasy points. Since Andy Dalton took over, he has seen 10+ targets in 3 of 5 games and has been more reliable in fantasy football.
In week eight the Panthers turn to Bryce Young after Andy Dalton’s injury, and it clouds Johnson’s outlook. In two games with Young under center Johnson finished with 5 catches for 34 yards on 12 targets resulting in 8.4 fantasy points. The Broncos are currently the 2nd best at limiting opposing receivers in fantasy football allowing on 22.6 fantasy points per game. Johnson is a guy I am avoiding this week, and it will be interesting to see if he finds a new home before the trade deadline.
C.J. Stroud QB (HOU)
Panic Meter: 2
Stroud currently ranks as the QB18 in fantasy points per game slightly ahead of Bo Nix this season who has 5 touchdown passes in 7 games. Last week against the Packers skewed these numbers as he finished with 86 passing yards and 0 touchdowns resulting in 5.9 fantasy points. This was his second week without his favorite target in Nico Collins and he has yet to crack over 200 passing yards without him. On the other hand, the Texans are committed to the ground game this season ranking top 10 in the NFL in attempts with Joe Mixon healthy.
The Texans offensive line is doing Stroud no favors this season as they currently rank 33rd in protection rate among quarterbacks with Stroud back there. This has caused less splash plays for the Texans offense resulting in Stroud ranking 14th in EPA and 21st in explosive rating. Despite this, it is hard to bench him against a favorable matchup against the Colts this week. I think we need to change our perspective on Stroud as a “set it and forget it” quarterback to a guy we start when he has a good matchup.
Sam LaPorta TE (DET)
Panic Meter: 4
LaPorta has 2 catches in 2 weeks following the Lions bye week and has only managed to top 50 yards twice this season. After the bye week, we were hoping that offensive coordinator Ben Johnson would start to involve LaPorta more in the Lions gameplan. Instead, a guy who ranks 1st in passer rating when targeted, 2nd in true catch rate, and 3rd in explosive rating, currently ranks 33rd among tight ends in targets.
There is light at the end of the tunnel for LaPorta managers with Jameson Williams now serving a two-game suspension. On the season Williams currently has a 17.3% target share which will provide more opportunities in the passing game for LaPorta. During those two weeks if he has a monster game, it would be smart to trade him. When Williams is back the target share will once again take a dip, and you will regret sticking with him instead of selling high.
Rhamondre Stevenson RB (NE)
Panic Meter: 2
In his return from injury, Rhamondre Stevenson finished with 7 carries for 18 yards while catching 2 passes for 7 yards. This was Stevenson’s 3rd finish under 10 PPR points this season in six games. Since Drake Maye took over, the Patriots offensive style has changed. They are throwing the ball more often as Maye finished with 37 passing attempts last week and 33 the week prior. If this trend continues down the stretch, it might not bode well for Stevenson.
Stevenson played 50% of the running back snaps for New England while JaMycal Hasty and Antonio Gibson split the other snaps. Hasty and Gibson have operated as the 3rd down backs in New England all season limited Stevenson’s pass catching upside. Where Stevenson does still hold value is on early downs as he is their best runner of the football. There is no reason to panic on Stevenson, fantasy managers just need to understand that without much upside as a pass catching back his weekly floor is low.
DeVonta Smith WR (PHI)
Panic Meter: 1.5
Since returning from injury, DeVonta Smith has caught 4 passes for 62 yards on 6 targets with a touchdown resulting in 16.2 PPR points. Smith’s touchdown came on a 45 yard drag route that resulted in a 40-yard gain after the catch. The lack of volume the last two weeks has been concerning, but what worries me more is the air yards share. A.J. Brown currently boasts a 62% air yards share meanwhile DeVonta Smith is at 14%.
Smith has become dependent on volume in the short passing game, which he has not seen the last two weeks. The Eagles have committed to the run more since their bye week running on 73% of plays. There will be better weeks ahead for Smith but his role in this offense has decreased.
Cut List | Panic Meter: 5
Anthony Richardson QB (IND)
Antonio Gibson RB (NE)
Zamir White RB (LV)
Allen Lazard WR (NYJ)
Christian Watson WR (GB)