Welcome to Blitz Sports Media’s Fantasy Football “Panic Meter”. Each week we will identify some of the disappointing performances from the prior week to identify if it is time to panic about a certain player. Below is the official Blitz Sports Media panic meter discussing the reasoning behind each panic meter level.
Let’s get into all of the players who made this week’s version of the panic meter.
Jayden Reed WR (GB)
Panic Meter: 1.5
Since the return from his team suspension, Romeo Doubs has outshined Reed. During the last three weeks, Doubs has led the Packers in first read %, target share, and fantasy points. Jayden Reed has failed to top 55 receiving yards and is averaging 8.4 fantasy points per game in that stretch. Before the slump, Reed was off to a hot start averaging 17.7 points per game and currently ranks 3rd among all wide receivers in EPA.
Reed is the deep threat in the Packers’ offense. LaFleur schemes him up reverses and down-the-field passes to showcase his YAC ability. This has led to him ranking second this season in target separation despite only having a 17.7% win rate versus man coverage. Doubs operates as more of an intermediate receiver in the Packers’ offense, averaging 4.5 fewer yards per target than Reed. He deserves to remain in the WR2 conversation going forward but has proven to be a boom-or-bust candidate weekly due to a lack of volume.
Davante Adams WR (NYJ)
Panic Meter: 2
Despite playing over 90% of snaps in his first two games as a Jet, Adams has yet to reach double-digit fantasy points. After the trade to New York, many expected him to be the WR1 right away, but Garrett Wilson has maintained the higher target rate and first read % so far. Despite the offense ranking 6th in passing attempts per game, they currently rank 31st in the NFL in EPA per passing play. This is the main reason for Adams 15 targets not being translated into fantasy points.
Going forward, his value is downgrading from a WR2 to a weekly flex play depending on the matchup. The volume is there for him to be successful but the lack of success from the Jets offense on a per-play basis has led to a bunch of empty targets. Temper your expectations from the future Hall of Famer in the second half of the season.
Joe Burrow QB (CIN)
Panic Meter: 1
Burrow has been hit or miss this season with two games above 28 points but also has four games below 20 points. The injury to Tee Higgins hurt his outlook against the Eagles, which led to him finishing with 14.5 points. The past three weeks he only has 3 touchdown passes, slowing down after his hot start to the season.
There is no reason to panic with Burrow long-term. With him, he is not necessarily a set-it-and-forget-it type player but more of a weekly matchup guy. When Tee Higgins is on the field his value shoots up, but with Higgins we never know. So, the best strategy with Burrow long-term is to play matchups. In the 2nd half of the season, he has easier matchups ahead that will lead to more 20+ point performances. He’s
DJ Moore WR (CHI)
Panic Meter: 3
Outside of his 27.5-point performance in Week 5, it has been a lost season for Moore. He is averaging 9.8 points per game if you remove that performance and now has back-to-back weeks with below 10 points despite favorable matchups. His EPA, air yards share, and average depth of target are all down from last year. Many people will attribute it to Caleb Williams struggles, but it has more to do with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. Below is Moore’s route tree through the first half of the season
We have seen the success the Seahawks receivers have had in the post Waldron era and now it’s the Bears receivers who are suffering from a lack of creativity. Waldron is making a guy who gets paid $28 million dollars a season run go routes and screens basically eliminating the middle of the field. Below is a route tree from one of Moore’s games last season.
With Shane Waldron at offensive coordinator, it is hard to believe a turnaround is coming soon for Moore and the other Bears receivers. It would be a good idea to try to sell him after a big game, but he is officially climbing up the panic meter quickly.
Amari Cooper WR (BUF)
Panic Meter: 1
Despite only playing 19 snaps in his debut, Cooper managed 4 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown resulting in 16.6 fantasy points. In week eight he saw the number of snaps he played double while the number of targets he received decreased to 2. Both Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir had big days combining for 14 catches for 177 yards and a touchdown in the win. Below is a chart showing the snaps played, routes run, and targets received for Bills wide receivers.
Cooper’s role within the Bills offense will continue to grow weekly but the concerns stem from the production of Coleman/Shakir and Stefon Diggs production at the end of last season. Under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, the identity of the Bills offense is to run the football. This led to Stefon Diggs dip in production last year, which is the role Cooper will be playing in Buffalo. Ultimately Cooper ranks 21st in the NFL in route win rate and will be successful when targeted in Buffalo. Will the volume increase or will it be inconsistent going forward? It is not time to panic on Cooper but should be viewed as a flex play going forward.
CJ Stroud QB (HOU)
Panic Meter: 3
Stroud has been down Nico Collins for a few weeks resulting in a dip in his production and now loses Stefon Diggs for the season with an ACL injury. Since Collins went down with an injury, Stroud has yet to have 20+ fantasy points in a game. Despite all of the hype coming into the season, he has only finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback in a week twice during his career. On the season he has now fallen to the QB22 on the season and his rest of the season outlook looks grim.
On top of the wide receiver injuries, the offensive line has struggled this season. Stroud ranks 33rd among quarterbacks in protection rate this season, which has led to his yards per attempt dropping 1.5 yards from last season. It is the perfect storm of regression for a quarterback with no rushing upside. Until Nico Collins returns in Week 10, it is a good idea to avoid starting Stroud.
Cut List | Panic Meter: 5
Devin Singletary RB (NYG)
Zach Moss RB (CIN)
Keenan Allen WR (CHI)
Allen Lazard WR (NYJ)
Isaiah Likely TE (BAL)