What’s Behind Chicago’s Quarterback Woes Through Week 3

It used to be viewed as a sign of good things to come. Getting an early 1^st round draft pick was viewed as a path to prosperity by way of landing the hot prospect coming out of college. It’s a passing league, so Quarterbacks are at a premium. Somewhere along the way, the idea got into General Managers’ heads that all it takes is a shiny new play-caller to become a contender.

The Bears are a prime example of this thought process. They used their 1^st overall pick ahead of the 2024 season to draft the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner, USC Quarterback Caleb Williams. Drafting him as the first overall pick is not the problem. His talent is undeniable… but neither is his youth and lack of NFL experience. Of course, some rookie starters are able to hit the ground running… or passing as it were. C.J. Stroud stepped in as the rookie Quarterback for Houston in 2023 and instantly made a difference. He threw for over 4,000 yards and led the 3-13-1 team to a division title, all while delivering a Rookie of the Year performance.

However, more often than not putting a rookie Quarterback in the deep end, winds up with terrible results and hurts the Quarterback’s development. As evidence, we’re watching Caleb Williams flounder so far this season. He came into a team with a record below .500 across the prior 3 seasons, with an offensive line as one of the glaring weak spots. This is a lot for any Quarterback to overcome, much less a rookie right out of college.

Constant pressure has had a clear impact on Caleb Williams performance

The Challenges of a Rookie Quarterback

The impact on Caleb can be seen from the output of his first two games. Both Tennessee and Houston kept constant pressure on him with aggressive blitz schemes resulting in the 3^rd highest Pressure Rate (28.9%) relative to his pocket time (2.2 seconds). That short pocket time is not from quick decision-making and a quick release. It’s from him facing the 4^th highest blitz total in the league, being sacked more than any other Quarterback. This pressure he’s faced has had a demonstrable impact on his performance… Caleb is:

• 2^nd in Bad Throw %
• 30^th in On Target %
• 32^nd in Air Yards per Completion (having to rely on dink & dunk to advance the ball)
• 27^th in Completion %
• 30^th in 1^st Down throws
• 30^th in Passer Rating (a miserable 53.0)
• 32^nd in Yards Per Completion

Most of the Quarterbacks in these rankings neighborhoods are others who started in their rookie year as well. The lack of development is apparent in their results.

This week’s game against the Colts was just as bleak. A couple of key moments in the 1^st half collapsed in on Caleb. He had a 45-yard strike to Rome Odunze, which was followed up by an interception from within field goal range, killing a scoring opportunity. Then another 25-yard pass to Odunze gave life to a drive that made it to the goal line. Unfortunately, the opportunity resulted in 0 pts due to a loss of possession on downs. The play calling was all rushing suggesting the coaches don’t have trust in his ability to score. Overall, this week’s production looks fair on paper, with 363 yards passing on a modest 63.4% Completion Rate leading to 2 touchdowns. However, this was tempered by the 2 interceptions and a steady stream of critical throws that were off the mark.

A poor rushing attack allows defenses to put more focus on shutting down the Quarterback

The Flaw is in the Scheme

I don’t mean to highlight all of this as a takedown on Caleb Williams. This is about teams demanding too much from rookie Quarterbacks, and his output is a reflection of that. This season, we’re seeing that the most successful teams in the early part of the season are those with a prolific run game. That kind of “help” lightens the defensive focus on the Quarterback, enabling them to execute. That isn’t the case with Caleb as the Bears have the 28th-ranked rushing offense, ramping up the pressure on the passing game. This is the kind of pressure that other rookie starters from the past few seasons have also faced.

Credit to ‘X’ content creator @Shotsftsideline for bringing this topic to my attention. Since 2021 there have been 15 Quarterbacks drafted in the 1^st round. Of the 6 that played more than 2 seasons, all started immediately, with 5 being considered a “bust,” all of whom are no longer with their draft team. Of the 9 drafted in the past 2 seasons, 6 were the immediate starters with only 1 rising up as a clear franchise Quarterback (C.J. Stroud). The others, like Caleb, struggle to perform.

Conclusion

So, the Bears, like the New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Carolina Panthers before them… are making the mistake of too much too fast. Their 1-2 start is directly related to putting a rookie in the most important offensive position on the field. This approach has proven to be an odds-on favorite to produce a “bust.” This is what’s behind Chicago’s Quarterback woes… says me.

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