Which Quarterback Has the Most “HELP” and how do we Define It?

Quarterback isn’t just the most valuable position on a football team, it’s also the MVP of football discussions, debates, and all-out disagreements. A topic often involved in these conversations is the level of “Help” a QB has. If he performs poorly, his fanbase is quick to say he doesn’t have enough help. When he plays well, opposing fanbases argue he has the most help.  

Since it’s not likely that a Quarterback has both ‘too little help’ and the ‘most help’ this situation can be settled with the “help” (pun intended) of a little data. Of course, crunching the numbers isn’t going to settle these disputes outright. Many will simply ignore the stats and stick with their own views on the matter. But I believe there are a few eager football fans out there who would appreciate the insight that a fact-based analysis can provide… if only to inform the discussion and mitigate these contradictory claims.

First, we must define what “Help” means for a Quarterback

Simply put, a Quarterback needs a solid Offensive Line to provide pass protection, while having capable receivers in the Skill Positions to haul in the passes that he sends their way. On top of that, the strength of the run game is very important. An effective rushing attack challenges defenses to put bodies, big bodies, in the box. Without a meaningful run game, Defensive Coordinators can stick to dime packages every play using fast, fleet-footed coverage instead of the size needed to handle an explosive running back bursting through the line. So, with these things in mind, which metrics allow us to build a “Help rating” enabling the assessment of each Quarterback’s offensive support? 

Beginning with Offensive Line Quality (OLQ)

The best stats for this are Pocket Time (PktTime) and Pressure Percentage (Prss%).  PktTime tells us 1) how long the Quarterback takes to release the ball and/or 2) how long until the pocket collapses. To differentiate these two scenarios, we use Prss%. It specifically indicates the frequency by which the pocket collapses around the QB. Along the way, we also have to account for Quarterbacks that take too long in the pocket, thereby putting too much pressure back on the OL. Conversely, a Quarterback with a quick release reduces the help needed by the OL because he’s taking care of business by himself. This all leads to the metric below:

OLQ = (PktTime / PktTime_max) * (1 – Prss%)

PktTime_max = The longest PktTime among QBs in the comparison

* All data taken from Pro-Football-Reference.com

Next is Skill Position Quality (SPQ)

To establish the metric for SPQ I’m taking a simple route (see what I did there… like a passing “route?”). Anyway… a stat that separates the receiver’s part of a reception from the Quarterback is Drop Percentage (Drop%). This leads to the metric seen here:

SPQ = 1 – Drop%

Finally, we capture the quality of the Rushing Game (RushQ)

Finally, we capture the quality of the Rushing Game (RushQ)

This is done by dividing the team’s total rushing yards by the most yards gained among the teams of the other Quarterbacks in this analysis.

RushQ = Rushing Yards / Rushing Yards_max

Last Step

We have to account for the proportion of plays that were passing v. rushing and factor this into our overall “Help rating.” 

Simple, right? 

Help Rating = [Pass_ratio * (OLQ + SPQ)] + (Rush_ratio * RushQ)

Now, there are a myriad of subtle variations in a given play that may be caused by weather, injury, defensive scheme, teammate execution, etc., which all affect the precision of these metrics. However, we can count on those variations to be random and independent, meaning their effect on the outcomes will smooth out over time, helping to maintain accuracy. And again, this is intended to inform the discussion about “help” not settle it. So, without further ado, let’s see which of the top Quarterbacks had the most help last season (those who won their divisions, as well as some that were in wild card spots… or of special interest, like Justin Herbert). This analysis can aid in projecting what to expect this season. Of course, it will be important to account for draft picks, trades, and free agency movements before making any predictions, but we’ll get there. All good? Here we go:

Most Help

Right off the bat, we can see that Brock Purdy enjoyed the highest Help Rating among these Quarterbacks. He threw to a corps of receivers that had the highest SPQ, driven by the lowest Drop%. He made those throws from behind a line that amounted to the 2nd best OLQ listed, trailing only the Ravens. Incidentally, those two teams provided the 1st and 2nd longest PktTimes for their Quarterbacks.

The 49ers also had the 2nd best RushQ led by last season’s winner of the Rushing Title, Christian McCaffery. However, Goff benefitted the most with the highest RushQ listed, produced by the superb tandem of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. It’s no mystery that these two teams played each other in the NFC Conference Championship. 

Least Help

At the bottom of the list is Baker Mayfield. The guy has been fighting for his NFL career and somehow wound up on a team that afforded him the lowest Help Rating of all the Quarterbacks listed. His receivers were very skilled, led by Mike Evans placing 3rd on this list for SPQ. He also had a decent mid-level OLQ for protection. It was the anemic run game that led to his poor Help Rating. The Bucc’s low RushQ put extra pressure on Mayfield because his opponents could direct their focus on pass defense. But when you have a pretty quick release (2.4 seconds in the pocket), one of the lowest Prss%, and receivers that don’t drop passes, you can make it work. Get this man some help with run blocking and things can get even better.

Other Call-Outs

• Tua Tagovailoa had the shortest PktTime at 2.1 seconds, which helped him face the lowest Press%. That’s a good thing since there were lingering concerns regarding concussions.
• Patrick Mahomes had one of the worst “Help” situations among these top Quarterbacks. He faced the highest Prss%, which was significant since the Chief’s ratio of pass plays was the highest of all these Quarterbacks. To make it worse, his Skill Position players had the worst Drop%. The run game didn’t amount to much either due to the play-calling ratio being skewed so heavily away from rushing. Alas, Mahomes still found a way to win in the face of all that pressure and dropped balls. That’s what puts him in the all-time great conversation. Lowest Help Rating but he still won the Lombardi.
• The Quarterback that I am keeping my eye on is Jordan Love. Across these Quality metrics, he has results in and around the middle of the bunch. However, the value in the TOTAL PASS column rose to the 2nd spot because his mid-level OLQ and SPQ were used 55% of the time for pass plays (the 3rd highest ratio). So even with mid-tier help, his volume of passes had a big impact because, well… he’s pretty good at it. With the addition of Josh Jacobs this coming season, giving arguably a stronger run game, we should expect even more from the Packers this year. 

Onto my final thoughts regarding what this all means. Looking at the top of the Help Rating we see Brock Purdy, the last overall pick in the 2022 draft. At the bottom of the list resides Baker Mayfield, the first overall pick in his draft class. But frankly, at this point who they were coming into the league no longer matters. What’s critical to success is fielding a complete set of complimentary football, with a great Quarterback, solid rushing attack, quality receivers, and effective linemen. Mileage may vary from team to team, but the best road to success in the NFL is to provide your Quarterback with all the “Help” he can get… says me.