It’s late in the season, but we still have something new. Blitz Sports Media brings you our custom analysis for Wide Receiver Fantasy Football projections. This will help with last-minute decisions on who to start, who to pick up on waivers through bye weeks, determine a player’s trade value, or even make late-season acquisitions if you’re in a Guillotine league.
The formulas used to generate this information are based on a player’s actual weekly game results adjusted according to the opposing defense.
- Each active receiver’s projected receptions, total yardage, and likelihood of scoring are estimated (check our injury report to confirm who’s actually available this week).
- Then each defense’s receptions, passing yards, and touchdowns allowed are calculated and compared to the league average.
- This difference from the average is used to adjust a receiver’s potential output.
- And finally, that output is projected into PPR results.
NOTE: The Defense Adjusted totals are provided in the tables below so you can calculate against a different fantasy football point system if needed.
Receivers are further divided into loosely defined tiers based on the PPR projections. Click the links to jump to each section.
Categories of Fantasy Football Projections
Wide Receiver 1
These are no-brainers, right? If you have one or more of these guys, you’re going to start him. But as I said, if you are playing Guillotine or considering trades, this may help with some tight decisions. Also of interest is that certain defenses give more uplift to a receiver’s projections:
- Jacksonville
- Houston
- Dallas
- Baltimore
.. all give the best adjustments to the estimated results. While this is already factored into the projected PPR values, there could be additional volatility in the projected results for some players… in a good way. Amon-Ra, Lazard, Davante Adams, Pickens, Garret Wilson, and Nico Collins (looks like he is finally healthy) all have additional value to consider.
Wide Receiver 2
The receivers listed in this bucket are also easy selections for starting spots. But again, the list helps you see where everyone lands relative to each other and gives additional insight regarding the defense they’re up against. Jameson Williams and Tank Dell are facing the lower-end passing defenses from Dallas (ranked 31 for both yards and touchdowns allowed… yikes) and Jacksonville (dead last in passing yards/attempt).
Don’t forget to confirm who’s healthy this week, especially guys like Amari Cooper who are still listed as Questionable.
Wide Receiver 3
These are the tougher decisions so hopefully you can get the information you’re looking for on who to start in the lower roster spots. Depending on your other receivers, look for these guys to be in the WR3 spot or Flex position. This is where the flip side of defensive adjustments is important. The teams that sank receivers’ projections the most are:
- Chicago
- New Orleans
- Buffalo
- Jets
- Lions
Regardless of the good or bad of their offensive performances, these teams have the most imposing passing defenses in the league. This results in the greatest downward adjustment for the pass-catchers that are up-against them.
That means receivers like Romeo Doubs, D-Hop, Elijah Moore, Worthy, Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Jeudy could have a bit more downside than the numbers suggest. If you have a close decision involving one of these players, you might want to sit them.
Wide Receiver 4
Finally… here’s the list of players that have you reaching deep to the bottom of the barrel. If you’re dealing with injuries, bye weeks, or bad matchups maybe you can find a few extra critical points needed to squeeze out a victory. A lot of these guys are streaky… sometimes they’ll have a big week, and sometimes they fall into the background.
To be honest, I see some of these 3rd or 4th targets having real upside versus the tougher passing defenses. As they focus on covering the primary and secondary targets, openings could form for the WR4 guys to get extra targets themselves. With these things in mind, I am attributing extra value to:
- David Bell
- Juju Smith-Schuster
- Christian Watson
- Dontayvion Wicks
- Gabe Davis
That’s my theory anyway…
I hope this breakdown bears fruit for you this weekend. Pour over the list, pay attention to the defenses that drive the best and worst adjustments, and keep an eye on those injury updates. Also… keep an eye out for this piece each week. It will impact your fantasy football results… says me.