Fantasy Football Start / Sit Week 15 Advice: Addison, Dowdle, and Tagovailoa Among Best Starts

With Week 15 of the NFL season in full swing, we had multiple disappointing outings to start the fantasy football playoffs. Between the Cooper Kupp dud and other performances below 10 points, getting the right players in your lineup is even more important. The Start and Sit list contains borderline players for each roster to help you make the right decisions ahead of your matchup. This season we have hit on 67.2% of our start and sit picks ahead of the fantasy football playoffs. Below are my favorite start/sits for Week 14.

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Quarterbacks to Start

Sam Darnold MIN

Darnold has been one of the safest options at the quarterback position this year and is starting to post even better numbers as of late. Coming off of his 5-touchdown performance, it marked his fourth straight game over 23 fantasy points. Although the matchup might not look good on paper, Darnold scored 25 points against the Bears in Week 12 and the Bears defense is starting to regress. Chicago has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in three straight games and an average of 286.7 passing yards per game during that stretch. Darnold is a must start if you have him in Week 1 of the fantasy football playoffs.

Kyler Murray ARI

Kyler Murray has easily been one of the most frustrating players in fantasy football this season but has a chance for redemption down the stretch against great matchups. The stretch starts with the Patriots who have allowed 21 points to five of the last six quarterbacks this season. With the season on the line, expect Drew Petzing to utilized Kyler Murray on the ground more. Anthony Richardson had success in Week 13 against the Patriots with 48 rushing yards and a touchdown. A strong performance against the Patriots’ will give managers more confidence against the Panthers and Rams matchups that provide great streaming value.

Tua Tagovailoa MIA

Tagovailoa has been on a tear recently, ranking as the QB2 over his last four games, trailing only Josh Allen. During this stretch, he’s averaged 325 passing yards and 11 touchdowns as the Miami Dolphins passing game is starting to get hot. The increased volume in the passing game has been key to Miami’s success, as they rank second in neutral pass rate and third in pass rate over expectation. This week, he’s facing off against the Texans, a team that allows plenty of big passing plays and is tied for the most passing touchdowns allowed this season (26). The Texans also rank 10th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks making Tua a great start.

Quarterbacks to Sit

Anthony Richardson IND

In his last three games, Richardson has two 20-point performances while averaging 9 carries for 47 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Although he has been better in fantasy football, he still has a 47.4% completion percentage and ranks 32nd in EPA. With little improvements through the air, it is difficult to trust the second-year quarterback against one of the league’s best defenses in the Broncos. Outside of the Jameis Winston game, the Broncos defense has been lockdown this year and is allowing the 9th fewest points to quarterbacks this season. In a do-or-die week, it is impossible to trust the volatility of Anthony Richardson against a tough matchup.

Russell Wilson PIT

The Steelers passing game looked different without George Pickens last week with Russell Wilson finishing with 158 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and averaged 6.1 yards per completion against the Browns. The Steelers will be without Pickens again this week hurting Wilson’s value in fantasy. Last week marked his 5th performance under 20 fantasy points out of seven starts. A matchup against the Eagles does not help as they have allowed the 6th fewest fantasy points while allowing the 5th fewest touchdowns this season. Wilson is a landmine in Week 15.

Baker Mayfield TB

Despite a favorable schedule, Mayfield has not matched his production to start the season with five straight games below 20 fantasy points. Mayfield has struggled with turnovers in his last two games throwing four interceptions which has prevented him from reaching that 20-point mark. Despite the struggles as of late, Mayfield has been awesome this season ranking as the QB5. The Chargers have allowed the least points in the NFL this season while ranking 11th against quarterbacks in fantasy football. Mayfield is a QB2 this week and should be avoided in your starting lineup.

Running backs to Start

Brian Robinson Jr. WAS

Robinson Jr. has been a steady contributor for the Commanders, especially in matchups against weak defenses. In Week 13 we saw him score 17.9 fantasy points without Austin Ekeler finishing with over 100 rushing yards and a touchdown. After a hot start to the season, Robinson has been battling injuries that have limited his production since Week 4. A bye week and a great matchup against the Saints provide him a great chance to start the fantasy playoffs strong. The Saints have allowed a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry since Week 6, ranking 30th in EPA/rush and 31st in Success Rate.

Zach Charbonnet SEA

Charbonnet stepped up in a big way when Kenneth Walker III was sidelined last week, delivering one of the biggest fantasy performances of the season with 38.3 points. He was responsible for nearly half of Seattle’s scrimmage yards and had the third-most yards after contact in any game this year. With Walker’s status still in doubt for Week 15, Charbonnet could be in for another massive role. The Packers have been good at limiting efficiency on the ground but have struggled in terms of fantasy points allowed. In the last eight weeks they have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to running backs making Charbonnet a good start if Walker is out.

Rico Dowdle DAL

Dowdle is starting to come into his own with his increased role in the Cowboys’ offense. After using multiple running backs to start the season, Dowdle has had at least 18 rushing attempts in three straight games while grading out high on the weekly usage report. In his last two games he has at least 112 rushing yards and 14 fantasy points against favorable matchups. In games where he gets 16+ touches he would be the RB8 averaging 16.3 points per game. The breakout campaign will continue against the Panthers who rank dead last in the NFL in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns this season.

Running backs to Sit

Najee Harris PIT

Harris’ role has diminished in recent weeks, with his snap share dropping to just 42% in Week 14. He’s also seen only 45.7% of the Steelers’ backfield opportunities, as Jaylen Warren continues to handle more passing-down work. The Steelers are 5.5-point underdogs against the Eagles this week, and Harris’ fantasy production has been split depending on game script—he’s been the RB17 in wins but drops to RB39 in losses. The Eagles have been stingy against the run, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs and ranking second in EPA/rush. Despite Harris averaging 86 total yards per game, he will not cash in on his RB2 expectations this week.

D’Andre Swift CHI

D’Andre Swift has failed to score over 10 points in four of his last five games. The injury to Roschon Johnson led Swift back into a bigger role but ultimately led to no production. He finished with 38 rushing yards and 5 points against San Francisco this week marking his third straight game under 40 rushing yards. He ranks 30th among running backs in yards per touch while ranking 32nd in EPA. This week, it will not get better for Swift with a tough matchup ahead against the Minnesota Vikings who rank 4th against running backs in fantasy football making him a sit candidate in Week 15.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG

Tracy Jr. has emerged as a consistent starter in fantasy with 16 touches and 74 total yards over the last two games. His recent involvement in the passing game has been promising, but he faces a tough matchup against the Ravens in Week 15. Baltimore has been one of the stingiest defenses against running backs, ranking first in fewest rushing yards allowed per game (64.4) and second in yards per carry (3.6). Tracy Jr. will have a difficult time finding running room, as the Ravens have also given up the lowest explosive run rate and the lowest yards after contact per attempt since Week 9.

Wide Receivers to Start

DJ Moore CHI

Moore had a relatively quiet performance last week against the 49ers, finishing with 10.9 fantasy points, but he had posted 23 or more PPR points in each of his previous two games, including a standout 26.9-point effort against the Vikings earlier this season. Minnesota has struggled defending perimeter receivers, allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position since Week 7. Moore has been consistent with at least seven targets in four straight games and has scored 13.7+ points in three of those. With an elite matchup and an improved role within the Bears offense, Moore will be in for a big day.

Jerry Jeudy CLE

Jeudy has been on a tear recently, averaging 24.7 fantasy points over his last four games. He’s also seen a substantial 36 targets during this stretch. In particular, Jeudy has thrived with Jameis Winston at quarterback, averaging 6 catches for 103 yards and 21 fantasy points per game. The Chiefs have become a favorable matchup for wide receivers allowing the 2nd most receiving yards since Week 10 while allowing the 10th most points per game to wide receivers since Week 7. Jeudy is a low end WR1 this week and will cash in on another big performance.

Jordan Addison MIN

Addison has been scorching hot, scoring at least 15.1 PPR points in three of his last four games, including two performances over 30 PPR points. In that four-game stretch, Addison has seen 35 targets increasing his weekly floor. His standout game during that stretch came against the Bears, when he caught eight passes for 162 yards and a touchdown. Since Week 9, Chicago has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter receivers. Another interesting note is that the Bears run single high at a 64% clip which is second highest in the NFL and Addison’s first read share jumps to 30.6% against single high looks. Expect Addison to have another big day in Week 15.

Wide Receivers to Sit

DK Metcalf SEA

DK Metcalf since Week 4 only has three outings over 10 points and has only found the end zone once during that stretch. We have seen JSN become the primary underneath threat on the Seahawks offense with Metcalf being the deep threat. Metcalf ranks 6th in the NFL in air yards share while ranking 2nd in deep targets, these have not translated into fantasy points due to Metcalf having a 22% target rate which ranks 48th among wide receivers. On top of a lower target rate, Metcalf is only seeing a 72% catchable target rate which ranks 40th in the NFL. I would temper expectations this week against the Packers who rank 9th against wide receivers this season.

Jayden Reed GB

Reed has been an inconsistent fantasy option, with his performance fluctuating greatly from week to week. He has WR1 potential with his explosiveness, but he’s also been largely invisible at times, including a goose egg in his last game against Detroit, where he failed to catch his only target. That marked the fifth time in his last seven games that Reed has failed to score double-digit fantasy points. Since Week 11, Seattle has ranked 15th in receiving yards per game allowed to slot receivers while also holding the position to the sixth-fewest PPR points per target. With Reed’s volatile performances, I will not be trusting him in my starting lineup this week.

Amari Cooper BUF

Cooper is coming off his best game of the season, posting six receptions on 14 targets for 95 yards and 15.5 fantasy points. However, this performance came in a game that went off script, with Cooper seeing a high target volume in an unexpected game script. Cooper played only 32 snaps, and if Keon Coleman returns this week, Cooper’s role could be further diminished. The Lions’ defense has been tough against perimeter receivers, allowing the 10th-fewest points to the position since Week 7, and limiting wide receivers to the fifth-fewest PPR points per target. Given the potential for a regression and the difficult matchup, Cooper is a risky fantasy play in Week 15.

Tight Ends to Start

David Njoku CLE

Njoku has been one of the hottest tight ends in fantasy, posting 21.7 fantasy points per game over the past two weeks, thanks to 30 targets and three touchdowns. With Jameis Winston at quarterback, Njoku has flourished, averaging 9.7 targets and 15.2 fantasy points per game in their six games together, including four outings with 17+ fantasy points. This week, Njoku faces a Chiefs defense that has struggled against tight ends, allowing the most yards and the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. Njoku is a no brainer at the tight end position and has flex appeal for teams with two good options at TE

Jake Ferguson DAL

When Ferguson was out with an injury, we saw Luke Schoonmaker be fantasy relevant with Cooper Rush at quarterback with two performances over 11.6 fantasy points. In Ferguson’s first game back, he finished with 3 catches for 32 yards on 6 targets with Rush missing him on a wide-open touchdown early in the game. The numbers are not exciting by any means, but a matchup against the Panthers is. The Panthers have given up the most fantasy points to tight ends this season while allowing 10 or more points nine different times. Ferguson will bounce back this week and should be in your starting lineups.

Zach Ertz WAS

Ertz has been a consistent contributor, ranking as the TE11 in fantasy points per game. Over the past few weeks, he’s been heavily involved in the Commanders’ passing game, with 29 targets in the last four contests and touchdowns in each of his last three games. Despite a less-than-ideal matchup against the Saints, who have allowed the 14th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, Ertz’s volume should still make him a solid start. The Saints’ defense allows the fifth-most passing yards in the league while struggling to limit opposing teams rushing attacks. In a likely high scoring performance from the Commanders, Ertz is a start candidate.

Tight Ends to Sit

Dalton Kincaid BUF

Dalton Kincaid returns to the field this week after missing four games due to injury. Before the injury, Kincaid was struggling with no games over 55 yards and 2 touchdowns on the season resulting in 8.2 points per game. At matchup with the Lions is not ideal for the second-year tight end to start a late season resurgence. Detroit has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to the position this season, with only two tight ends scoring more than 10 points against them. Additionally, no tight end has topped 13.1 points in a game against the Lions. Kincaid is a risky option against the Lions this week and should be avoided despite being healthy.

Dalton Schultz HOU

Schultz is starting to find his way into starting lineups with his 17-point performance last week against a favorable matchup against the Jaguars. This marks Schultz’s second TE1 finish in the last four weeks while increasing his first read share to a season high 17.6%. Despite the increased involvement in the offense, it is hard to buy into a player with only one performance over 10 points this season. The Dolphins’ have struggled as of late against tight ends but still rank 11th in receiving yards allowed to the position. I am not buying into a late season breakout for Schultz and am avoiding him in my lineups this week.

Cade Otton TB

Otton’s early-season surge, where he posted 27 receptions for 273 yards and 4 touchdowns in a four-game stretch, was largely due to the absence of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. With Mike Evans back in the lineup, Otton’s role has diminished significantly, catching just 13 passes for 155 yards and no touchdowns over the past four games. Against the Chargers in Week 15, who rank 10th in limiting tight end production, Otton is unlikely to be a reliable fantasy option. He has had just one game over 10 fantasy points since Evans’ return, making him a risky play this week.

DEF to Start

Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens’ defense has not been as dominant as it has been in years past. It currently comes into Week 15 as the 26th-ranked defense. The Ravens are coming off of a bye week and face one of the best matchups in the New York Giants. The Giants currently allow the third-most points to opposing defenses and have allowed 9 or more points in three straight games since making the change at quarterback. The Ravens are the priority waiver wire add for defenses ahead of Week 15.

New York Jets

The Jets’ defense has not been as dominant since the change at head coach but has still managed two performances over 13 points in the last five weeks. Just like the Ravens, the Jets can take advantage of a great matchup against the Jaguars. In their last four games, the Jaguars have scored an average of 10.8 points while allowing their opponent’s defense to score over 10 points three times during that stretch. The Jets are the second-best defensive waiver wire pickup this week.

Washington Commanders

The Commanders cashed in on streamer value ahead of their bye week by scoring 8 points against the Titans. With a week of preparation and the debut of Marshon Lattimore they will be in for more than 8 points against an injury riddled Saints team. Jake Haener gets the start for the Saints as the Spencer Rattler experience resulted in turnovers and low scoring performances from the offense. Haener has 177 career passing yards and the Commanders should be able to hold the Saints in check for a nice day in fantasy football.

DEF to Sit

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers defense currently ranks 3rd on the season in points per game and is coming off of two straight performances over 10 points. This week’s matchup against the Eagles will be the toughest task of the season on the road. This season, Philly has allowed the 8th fewest fantasy PPG to opposing defenses. The chances of Pittsburgh’s defense putting up a big fantasy performance this week is unlikely, and you should avoid starting them this week.

Detroit Lions

The injuries are starting to catch up to the Lions defense with three straight performances fewer than 6 points per game. It won’t get easier against one of the league’s best offenses in the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are the 3rd hardest matchup for opposing offenses and are one of the least sacked teams in football. In a likely shootout, I am avoiding the Lions defense in Week 15.

Kickers to Start

Ka’imi Fairbairn HOU

Fairbairn has been one of the best kickers in fantasy football this season with only three performances below 10 points on the season. The Texans have an elite matchup this week against the Dolphins as they are allowing 10.5 points per game. With the Texans offense struggling to finish drives and a great matchup, Fairbairn will cash in on other 10+ point outing.

Brandon Aubrey DAL

After a midseason slump, Aubrey is starting to heat back up with three performances above 8 points Aubrey and the Cowboys have an elite matchup against the Panthers who are allowing an average of 9.8 points per game to kickers this season. Expect him to reach that 8-point threshold for the fourth straight game on Sunday.

Kickers to Sit

Chase McLaughlin TB

It’s been a rocky second half of the season for McLaughlin with only one performance over 10 points since Week 6. Last week against a favorable matchup, he burned us for 4 points against the Raiders. This week the Chargers provide a tougher matchup allowing an average of 6.2 points per game making McLaughin someone you should sit this week.

Jake Elliott PHI

Elliott was starting to heat up with three performances above 10 points in his last six games before his 2-point dud against the Panthers. He has been hit or miss this season between missed kicks and limited opportunities. The Steelers have one of the lowest total field goals attempted against them while holding opposing kickers to 5.8 points per game. Avoid Elliott in your lineup this week.

For a breakdown of each Start / Sit player this week, check out this YouTube video